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MOIT says 3% export turnover increase a heavy task
The National Assembly has accepted lowering the targeted export growth rate from 13 percent to the low level of 3 percent for this year. However, the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) still thinks that the modest growth rate will be a difficult task.
According to the ministry, export turnover for 2009 will have to reach $64.68 billion to obtain the 3 percent export growth rate. Meanwhile, Vietnam exported only $27.61 billion worth of products in the first six months of the year, which is just 39 percent of the initially set plan and 43 percent of the adjusted figure.
This means that Vietnam will have to export $37 billion worth of products in the second half of the year, or $6.2 billion a month.
MOIT said that this is really a high level to strive for, and that if government agencies do not take drastic measures, Vietnam will fail to obtain the goal.
There are two reasons why. First, export prices have dropped sharply in comparison with those of the same period of 2008. Second, big export markets for Vietnam have been narrowed.
Except for the European market, which is seeing the positive growth rate of 22.2 percent, other export markets have all decreased.
As far as export prices, crude oil, for example, saw export volume up by 23.47 percent, but value decrease by 53 percent from the same period of last year.
The best sign now for Vietnamese exporters is that the US economy has begun recovering with crude oil and farm produce prices rising. However, the prices have not reached last year’s levels.
Measures to boost exports have been carried out by the Ministry of Industry and Trade. It has been cooperating with associations and branches to carry out trade promotion programmes and look for new export markets.
The ministry said that it has been joining forces with the Ministry of Finance to apply flexible import-export tax policies which encourage domestic production and exports.
The Central Institute of Economic Management (CIEM) under the Ministry of Planning and Investment has forecast that Vietnam will see a minus export growth rate in 2009.
In its optimistic scenario, GDP grows by 5.56 percent, the crude oil price is $60 per barrel, exports will have the growth rate of minus 7.2 percent.
In the middle scenario, GDP grows by 4.69 percent, crude oil is $55 per barrel, exports will see the growth rate of minus 12.2 percent.
In the pessimistic scenario, GDP grows by 3.39 percent, crude oil is $40 per barrel, the export growth rate is minus 25.5 percent.
Pham Huyen
vietnamnet
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