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Experts differ over outlook for fertiliser prices in H2
Experts from the Information Centre for Agriculture (Agroinfo) have predicted that the price of fertiliser will increase in the second half of the year, but their outlook is not shared by everyone.
The price of fertiliser might see a slight increase in the second half of the year, despite the abundant supply, said Truong Hong Kim, an expert at Agroinfo.
Rising costs of materials like crude oil and coal directly affected the price of fertiliser, Kim said.
"Moreover, importers and exporters are now facing the challenges caused by international currency exchange. So, fertiliser prices may still raise in the second half," said Kim.
Other experts assured consumers that the fertiliser prices would not increase.
Nguyen Tien Toat, deputy director of the Viet Nam-Japan Fertiliser Company, said that current fertiliser prices in the Cuu Long (Mekong) Delta region had fallen to around VND6.5 million (US$300) per tonne.
"Even when the price falls, it is difficult for agencies and stores to sell fertiliser," he said.
Some experts believed that the price could not increase because the price of agriculture products had fallen, which meant that farmers wouldn’t be able to afford fertiliser and fertiliser companies wouldn’t be able to sell their products at all, said Toat.
In addition, new agricultural technologies were already saving farmers 30-50kg of fertiliser per hectare.
"If import-export activities remain stable, companies will be able to meet domestic demand. So prices will remain stable," said Toat.
From the beginning of the year to end of the second quarter, the fertiliser market has not fluctuated.
Fertiliser prices in the first half fell, compared to the same period last year. The price of imported fertiliser was only 60-70 per cent of 2008 prices.
A report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development shows that the country currently has 300 firms producing fertiliser, 35 companies exporting the product and 20 representative office of foreign fertiliser companies.
Demand for fertiliser this year is expected to be 7.8 million tonnes. From now to the end of year, the domestic market will need about 4 million tonnes of fertiliser.
In the first half of the year, the country imported 2.1 tonnes of fertiliser with a total revenue of $665 million.
Imports from China account for 40 per cent of the total imported value for fertiliser.
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