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Farm produce exported to China forecast to decrease
Turnover from farm produce exported to China is forecast to decrease in 2009, according to the Information Centre under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (Agroinfo).
Agroinfo’s Director Pham Quang Dieu said that turnover from produce exported to the market will decrease because the exports always depend on China’s economic growth rate.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast that this year may witness the continued decline of China’s economy with the GDP growth rate expected to be at 6.7 percent only and the Chinese reminbi to revaluate slightly.
Meanwhile, the prices of many kinds of farm produce, after reaching high peaks in 2008, are now tending to decrease significantly.
Both factors will likely lead to decreases of the two-way seafood, forestry and farm produce trade between Vietnam and China in 2009 with the expected decreases of 5-10 percent in comparison with 2008.
The turnover from natural rubber shipped to China in 2009 is expected to decrease slightly by 2 percent from 2008 due to forecast decreases in both volume and prices. It is expected that the natural rubber prices in China will hover around $1,400-1,700 per tonne, or a decrease of 25-30 percent in comparison with the average price of 2008.
The same situation will also occur with woodwork exports. The less bustling real estate trading in 2009 will lead to the sharp decrease of the consumption of consumer woodworks. The turnover of the products exported to China is expected to drop by 9.7 percent.
Dieu from Agroinfo mentioned a possible trend: Because China is exporting less farm produce, leaving high stocks, it is highly possible that China will concentrate on domestic consumption and push up exports to Vietnam.
According to the General Department of Customs, Vietnam exported $1.9 billion worth of farm produce to China in 2008, accounting for 11.9 percent of total farm produce export turnover, an increase of 39 percent in comparison with 2007. Meanwhile, Vietnam imported $1.7 billion worth of farm produce from China in that year.
VietNamNet, TBKTVN
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