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6.23% GDP growth surprises even minister: GSO
The 6.23% GDP growth rate in 2008 surprised programmers and forecasters as well. Bui Ba Cuong, Head of the National Accounts Department under the General Statistics Office (GSO), talked about the figure.
Was the GSO put under any pressure to declare the 6.23% GDP growth rate in 2008?
Though GSO belongs to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, our statistics are independent, and we are not pressured by anyone or any institution. When we announced the figure of 6.23% to the minister, we found out that even the minister was surprised.
Let’s talk about GDP growth rates. Why have the forecast GDP growth rates changed so many times, from 8.5-9% to 7% and then to 6.23%?
Forecasts should not rely only on models, but on good experts. If we just plug figures into models, this will lead to wrong forecasts if the figures are inaccurate. The Ministry of Planning and Investment is now still making long-term forecasts, while GSO is just making short-term forecasts. It was really difficult to give forecasts last year, when the national economy was affected by a lot of external influences.
What about the GDP of Vietnam in US dollars?
The GDP in VND is VND1,478tril, and the VND/US$ exchange rate is VND16,750/US$1, which means the GDP in US dollars is $88bil. However, I have to remind you that the consumer price increased by 23% last year, while the dollar price increased by 2.35%.
The GDP per capita has been calculated at over $1,000. However, if we count the income per capita with the 2007 price increase (8.3%), income per capita is $910 only.
With such a development growth rate, GDP may exceed $100bil in 2009.
Could you please tell us about the investment efficiency reflected in the Incremental Capital-Output Ratio (ICOR)?
In 2008, the ICOR, which was calculated with 1994’s prices, was over 7. However, we did not declare the figure.
It seems that there is no difference between the figure you have said and the figure of 6.9 which has recently been released?
In fact, there are different methods of calculation. Even the experts within GDO still cannot agree on a calculation method. We do not think that it would give accurate figures if calculating ICOR based on investment capital. In some cases, money was spent, but the money did not create assets, like the money to compensate for site clearance.
What about the ICOR of the state-owned sector?
We just made a temporary calculation for 2007, and the figure is over 10.
However, I have to remind you that the ICOR at over 10 should not be considered worrying, as the state’s capital has been mainly injected in infrastructure and projects enterprises do not want to undertake due to slow capital recovery.
TBKTVN
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