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Export revenue tipped to be lower than last year
The National Centre for Socio-Economic Information and Forecasting anticipates that the revenue from exports will be slightly less than in 2008.
Revenue from exports is forecast to reach US$58.7-61.3 billion for this year, 2.2-6.4 per cent lower than the value in 2008. The Ministry of Industry and Trade had previously expected a three-per-cent growth in export revenue this year.
"In recent years, the national total export value in the first half of the year has amounted to 45-47 per cent of the total export value in the whole year, and the value in the second half has accounted for 53-55 per cent," NCSEIF director Le Dinh An said.
Based on that trend, he said he hoped that the value could be higher or reach the same figure as 2008, if the world economy recovered and the Government managed export activities well.
This means that the most optimistic growth rate of the total export value in 2009 is zero, according to the centre.
The same forecast was submitted by the Ministry of Planning and Investment at a Government meeting in July.
Vo Hong Phuc, Minister of Planning and Investment, said the ministry expected the country to have a total export value of $62.7 billion for this year.
Many experts said the country would likely have negative growth in export value this year, because in the first seven months the revenue from exports saw a year-on-year decline of 13.4 per cent to $32.3 billion.
Declines possible
The country would have to bring in $6.45 billion in export revenue each remaining month, if it is to have a growth rate of 3 per cent in total export value for this year.
This year may become the first year that the country’s total export value declines since 1986.
However, An said that the country had a smaller decline in exports compared with other countries. China saw a decline of 22 per cent in total export value in the first half of this year compared to the same period last year, while Thailand’s export revenue dropped 23 per cent for the first five months of this year.
The NCSEIF proposed some solutions to boost exports by the end of this year.
It was recommended that the State Bank of Viet Nam should widen the daily trading band of the dong from 5 per cent at present to 6-7 per cent in the future.
The State should have regulations on diversifying kinds of foreign currency for export transactions to avoid concentration on the US dollar as now.
In addition, the State should use part of the economic stimulus package to supply direct support in the form of credit for export enterprises to help them overcome difficulties at present.
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