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Inflation rate may reach 8 percent this year, VinaCapital says
Vietnam’s inflation may accelerate to 8 percent by year-end from the slowest pace since 2004 amid higher gasoline prices, according to VinaCapital Investment Management Ltd.
Consumer prices rose 3.3 percent in July from a year earlier, the slowest rate since January 2004, based on figures from the General Statistics Office. Inflation has eased for 11 straight months from 28.3 percent in August 2008.
The figure will probably increase to about 7 or 8 percent by December, VinaCapital said in a monthly note to investors. The estimate puts VinaCapital in the mid-range of other recent forecasts, with Dragon Capital predicting that inflation would reach 6.7 percent by year-end while HSBC Holdings Plc last month predicted 9 percent.
“Market consensus is that the second half of 2009 will see a trend of rising prices,” VinaCapital said. “Gasoline and construction costs led
July’s consumer price index increase, a trend likely to continue as the gasoline price was raised again on August 9.”
The inflation outlook has “moderated slightly,” VinaCapital said, citing weaker-than-expected food prices.
Vietnam’s central bank has also used “mild tightening measures,” such as reducing the interest rate paid on compulsory deposits and controlling loans, in a bid to ease the likelihood of a sharp acceleration in inflation, the fund manager said.
thanhnien, bloomberg
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