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Prices forecasted to stabilize in June
Experts believe the prices of most goods used to calculate the consumer price index (CPI) will remain stable in June.
Rice price to stay nice
In Asia, the demand for importing rice remains low, as countries have already imported enough rice to suit their populations’ demand for 2010, and pay low price levels for new contracts. Meanwhile, the stock of rice is performing well in Vietnam and Pakistan, with the output of rice in India at satisfactory level.
Leading producers from each of these nations said certain factors keep the offered export prices at low levels as seen in the previous month: Thai rice is offered at $460 per tonne FOB, while five percent broken rice from Vietnam is priced at $360 per tonne FOB.
In Vietnam, northern provinces have begun harvesting the winter-spring crop, which has led to the increased supply and slight price decreases in some localities. Normal rice is now selling at 8000-9500 dong per kilo.
The report released by the taskforce in charge of domestic market management said that because of the low export price and the profuse supply in the north, the rice price will be stable in the time to come.
Pork prices decrease due to epidemics
The price of pork decreased by 1000-3000 dong per kilogramme in the last few days, now retailing at 27-30,000 dong per kilogramme of live weight in the north and 29-33,000 dong per kilogramme in the south.
The blue ear epidemic has made the pork price decrease because consumers have shifted to eat alternative kinds of meat, like beef or chicken. It is expected that the pork price will continue decreasing in June, while other kinds of meat will demand higher prices.
Meanwhile, the price of vegetables have slightly decreased in the north and increased vigorously in the south due to the hot weather. In Tay Ninh province, the vegetable price has increased by 1000-3000 dong per kilo.
Dairy products’ prices remain firmly high
Domestic dairy products’ prices will remain high in June due to the high cost of materials needed for producing dairy in the world market.
In Australia, full cream powder milk in May increased by 8.8 percent over the previous month, 20 percent over the beginning of the year, and 82 percent over the same period of the last year. The price of skim milk increased by 3 percent, 13 percent and 79 percent, respectively.
Similarly, in Western Europe, skim milk’s price increased by 5.8, 4.7 and 48 percent, respectively, and full cream powder milk by 12.5, 6.9 and 45 percent, respectively.
Sugar price will be stabilized in the next three months
It is expected that the sugar price throughout the world will hover around $500 per tonne thanks to an abundant supply.
In Vietnam, though sugar output was lower by 20,000 tonnes in comparison with the previous year’s crop, stocks continue to see solid levels (336,000 tonnes by May 15). Therefore, analysts believe the price of sugar will decrease slightly this summer.
Vietnam will likely not need to rely on importing sugar, as it presently has some 450,000 tonnes of sugar, more than ample for meeting domestic market demand the next three months (100,000 tonnes a month), meaning the sugar price will likely remain stable.
Steel price could decrease slightly
After increasing vigorously in the first four months of the year, the price of steel on the world market has begun decreasing sharply since May due to low demand. CIS sources ingot steel price, for example, has decreased by $110-140 per tonne to $500 per tonne FOB Black Sea. The ingot steel offered in Southeast Asia has dropped by $70-80 per tonne, now trading at $590-600 per tonne CFR
The ingot steel offered to Vietnam is sold at between $550 and $590 per tonne CFR, a decrease of $80-110 per tonne. Scrap steel has also decreased by $100 per tonne over April.
In the domestic market, the output and consumption of construction steel in May decreased significantly from the previous month because many big construction works have been slow in implementation.
It was estimated that the volume of steel consumed in May was at the lowest level so far this year, at about 260,000 tonnes, a decrease of 13 percent in comparison with April. The stocks remain large, with 300,000 tonnes of steel, while enterprises still have 490,000 tonnes of ingot steel for June production. Therefore, the steel price it is thought the price of steel will decrease in June.
Cement: Demand increases, but price won’t increase
It is estimated that the total quantity of cement output in May will reach 4.36 million tonnes, a decrease of six percent from the previous month, while only 4.31 million tonnes of cement were consumed, an eight percent decrease in comparison with April
The retail price has stayed stable, hovering at around 0.95-1.15 million dong per tonne in the north, and 1.1-1.4 million dong per tonne in the south.
According to the taskforce in the charge of domestic market management, the demand for cement will be higher in June, but the price won’t be higher, thanks to the profuse supply.
Petroleum prices stable, gas price down
The price of petroleum is expected to be stable, while the gas price will likely decrease slightly because the LPG price in the world continues to decrease
The gas retail price has decreased in Can Tho, HCM City by 10,000 dong per tank, now selling at 300-310,000 dong per tank
vietnamnet, TBKTVN
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