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State bank chief reports growth to hit 5 per cent
State Bank of Viet Nam Governor Nguyen Van Giau has predicted the country will finish the year with economic growth of 5 per cent and inflation of 6-8 per cent.
He has also suggested two possible scenarios for 2010. For the first, growth of 6-6.5 per cent would be accompanied by inflation of less than 10 per cent.
But it presupposes credit growth to be about 30 per cent this year and 25-27 per cent next year and crude oil prices to be US$64 per barrel this year and $70-75 next year, he said.
The other possibility is economic growth of 6.2-7 per cent and inflation of 7.5-8.5 per cent.
This would be possible if credit growth is between 25-27 per cent this year and by 23-25 per cent next year and crude oil prices are at $60 and $70-75.
Speaking about the central bank’s monetary policy, he said it planned to keep credit growth rate under 30 per cent this year and gradually reduce it in the following years.
Giau said that though the Government had slackened monetary policy to combat the current recession, it still managed money supply tightly and would not devalue the dong.
The SBV would retain a flexible monetary policy, strengthen oversight of credit quality, and keep reasonable interest and exchange rates, he assured.
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