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Centre forecasts export earnings of US$61.3 billion
The National Centre for Socio-economic Information and Forecasting (NCEIF) predicts that the country’s export earnings will be between US$58.7 billion and 61.3 billion this year.
The NCEIF, which is managed by the Ministry of Planning and Investment, estimates that the figure will decrease by 2.2 to 6.4 percent from the 2008 figure of US$63 billion.
The centre, however, says that export earnings may equal the 2008 figure if the Government issues strict directives and the global economy shows signs of recovery.
The NCEIF says it’s assessment is based on domestic export trends in recent years and the ability of Vietnam ’s major export markets, as well as the global economy, to recover.
It adds that due to the global economic recession, almost all Vietnam’s major export markets--like the US, the EU, Japan, and countries in North East Asia and ASEAN--will only slightly increase their imports of Vietnamese commodities, except for textiles and garments, food and foodstuffs.
In addition, it’s unlikely that the prices of Vietnam ’s major export lines will hit former highs--even crude oil, which is one of the country’s staple exports, accounting for 20 percent of the country’s total export earnings, the NCEIF emphasises.
If these forecasts come true, Vietnam will suffer a negative export growth this year, for the first time since 1986 when the country began its renovation process.
The NCEIF proposes three strategies to avoid this, focusing on exchange rate policy, the use of foreign currencies, and policies to support credit for exporters.
It says that the State Bank of Vietnam would widen the exchange rate band to +/- 6 and then to +/- 7 percentage points with caution to avoid causing destabilising shocks to the national economy.
The State should adopt specific regulations and mechanisms to diversify the use of different types of foreign currency, such as the EUR, JPY, GBP, and CNY, in export contracts, and not to rely too much on the US dollar as it now does, says the NCEIF.
In regard to policies to provide credit for exporters, the NCEIF proposes that the Government use part of its stimulus package to allow them access direct credit, and/or serve as guarantor for payments by those businesses which have proven they can deliver and can reliably make repayments.
Centre forecasts export earnings of US$61.3 billion
The National Centre for Socio-economic Information and Forecasting (NCEIF) predicts that the country’s export earnings will be between US$58.7 billion and 61.3 billion this year.
The NCEIF, which is managed by the Ministry of Planning and Investment, estimates that the figure will decrease by 2.2 to 6.4 percent from the 2008 figure of US$63 billion.
The centre, however, says that export earnings may equal the 2008 figure if the Government issues strict directives and the global economy shows signs of recovery.
The NCEIF says it’s assessment is based on domestic export trends in recent years and the ability of Vietnam ’s major export markets, as well as the global economy, to recover.
It adds that due to the global economic recession, almost all Vietnam’s major export markets--like the US, the EU, Japan, and countries in North East Asia and ASEAN--will only slightly increase their imports of Vietnamese commodities, except for textiles and garments, food and foodstuffs.
In addition, it’s unlikely that the prices of Vietnam ’s major export lines will hit former highs--even crude oil, which is one of the country’s staple exports, accounting for 20 percent of the country’s total export earnings, the NCEIF emphasises.
If these forecasts come true, Vietnam will suffer a negative export growth this year, for the first time since 1986 when the country began its renovation process.
The NCEIF proposes three strategies to avoid this, focusing on exchange rate policy, the use of foreign currencies, and policies to support credit for exporters.
It says that the State Bank of Vietnam would widen the exchange rate band to +/- 6 and then to +/- 7 percentage points with caution to avoid causing destabilising shocks to the national economy.
The State should adopt specific regulations and mechanisms to diversify the use of different types of foreign currency, such as the EUR, JPY, GBP, and CNY, in export contracts, and not to rely too much on the US dollar as it now does, says the NCEIF.
In regard to policies to provide credit for exporters, the NCEIF proposes that the Government use part of its stimulus package to allow them access direct credit, and/or serve as guarantor for payments by those businesses which have proven they can deliver and can reliably make repayments.
vov, vietnamplus
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