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Experts: Signs of economic recovery in offing
Many economists and businessmen are optimistic about prospects for the national economy, saying they now see signs of recovery.
“I cannot see any signs that suggest the national economy will continue declining,” said Do Thanh Nam, Chairman and General Director of Win-Win Consultancy and Strategic Support Company.
Meanwhile, Nguyen Hai Ha, Investment Director of HanoiFund, said that signs of economic recovery can be seen in the rise of the stock market in the last two months.
Dr. Nguyen Huu Long, Deputy Director of the Business Development Solutions Corporation (BDSC), said that some economic branches have become more prosperous, including construction material production, fashion and education, as a result of which many enterprises have raised their budget for consultancy services.
Ha believes that if the banking system maintains good operations from now to the end of the year and no problems occur during that time, optimism about the national economy will increase. According to Ha, the biggest risk the banking system may face is bad debt. However, Phan Quoc Tien, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors of HD Bank, said that the ratio of bad debt is not as worrying as it was in early and mid 2008. He added that commercial banks are now following strict procedures in providing loans.
Ha said that it is necessary to strictly monitor the cash flowing into the stock market to make sure it is not coming from the production stimulus programme.
The Ministries of Finance and Planning and Investment have released reports reviewing the performance of the national economy in the first five months of the year, warning that the foreign currency supply may become tense. Import turnover will increase more sharply than export turnover.
According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, export turnover in the first five months of the year reached $22.86 billion, down by 6.8 percent from the same period of last year, while the decrease would be 13.4 percent if not counting precious metals and stones ($2.6 billion). The trade gap in the first five months of the year was equal to 5 percent of export turnover, while if not counting bar gold exports, the figure would be 18.4 percent of export turnover.
The two ministries have also warned about hot credit growth. The total money supply (M2) by May 31 hadreached 1,800 billion, an increase of 3.2 percent over the previous month, and 14.6 percent over last year’s end. The total investment in the national economy had reportedly reached 1,500 billion, up by 14.8 percent over the end of last year, of which credit outstanding loans were 1,460 billion, up by 14.9 percent.
Meanwhile, the total deposits at credit institutions had increased by 13.6 percent only compared to the end of 2008.
In related news, the majority of Vietnamese small- and medium-size enterprises polled by the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) believe that the global economy will improve in the coming months. More than a half of polled Vietnamese businesses (54 percent) predicted that trade volumes would increase in the next three months, the highest percentage among polled countries.
VietNamNet, LD, VNE
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