|
Economy forecast to rebound by year’s end
The national economy is showing positive signs of picking up in the second half of this year, as the government’s loosening of financial policies and implementation of economic stimulus packages begin to take effect, according to a senior economic analyst.
PhD Le Dinh An, director of the national socio-economic information and forecasting centre, explains that the prices of essential commodities, especially export products, are likely to go up on the global market, starting in the late third quarter this year. In addition, prospects for exports will be boosted thanks to massive campaigns to promote trade to China and Africa. This means Vietnam’s exports will improve later this year, says Mr An.
According to the analyst, international trade is expected to recover earlier than forecast thanks to close cooperation and intervention from major world economies whose governments have introduced solutions to the crisis and, at the same time, made use of it to restructure their economies.
Mr An says that policies introduced by the government to expand the domestic market and seek new outlets have fuelled business and consumer confidence, helping stimulate consumption and exports.
His centre has forecast that the industrial sector is likely to grow at between 4.6-5.2 percent this year, the agricultural sector at 3.4-3.7 percent and the services sector at 4.9-5.8 percent, while the consumer price index will be kept at 7.51 percent.
PhD An forecasts that commodity prices will shoot up again in the late months of this year due to an increase in oil prices on the global market, which has fluctuated strongly for the past few months to reach nearly US$70/barrel at present.
A large amount of money has been disbursed recently to carry out economic stimulus packages and ensure social welfare, while domestic production has not yet recovered. “This could lead to an imbalance between capital and commodities and market prices will rise eventually,” says Mr An.
He also believes that when the global economic crisis slows down, prices, especially of export staples, will go up again late this year, driving up domestic consumption.
High inflation will return unless the government keeps a close watch on market prices and introduces proper policies, he warns.
vov
|
