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Stockbrokers mix confidence and caution
The VN-Index of the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange has an 18 percent chance of breaching the 400 mark, Viet Capital Securities Co. says in a note sent out to investors.
At the other end of the spectrum, the index has a 30-40 percent chance of ending this year between 200 and 400, and less than a 10 percent chance of finishing below 200.
“The stock market will have some sudden rises in 2009 as investors rely mainly on rumors. We anticipate the rate of return of the stock market this year will reach 32.65 percent,” the HCMC-based brokerage says.
Viet Capital Securities credits the market’s surge to heavy cash flows, the low price-earnings ratios of many listed companies, and better-than-expected earnings in the first quarter.
Investors believe that the global recession has bottomed, the brokerage says.
VNDirect Securities, which recommended buying shares when the market hit 320 last month, is more confident of the index reaching 400 this year.
In a report released last week, Ho Chi Minh City Securities Co. recommends investors buy heavily as soon as the market corrects, and sees 400 as the medium-term level of resistance.
A more cautious note is sounded by Saigon Securities Inc., Vietnam’s largest listed brokerage, which warns that the VN-Index may still retreat to below 300.
thanhnien, dtck
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