|
Experts offer online advice
Securities experts and regulators offered their best guesses as to where the nation’s stock market was headed in the second half of the year in a roundtable discussion held online on Monday by the publication Dau tu Chung khoan (Securities Investment).
* Tran Van Phong, Ha Noi: Will the VN-Index be able to reach 700 this year?
Johan Nyvene, General Director, HCM City Securities Co.: It will be hard for the VN-Index to reach 700 at the end of 2009 because, at this level, the average P/E (price to earnings) of the market would be relatively high. We should also consider the outlook for the domestic and global economies. The world economy has not been as bad as expected over the past few months, and maybe the economic crisis has seen its rock bottom, but this doesn’t mean that the global economy has begun to recover. We cautiously predict that the VN-Index could reach 450-470 by the end of the year.
* Dang Thanh Tam, Chairman, Kinh Bac Urban Development Co.: We have witnessed dramatic growth of the domestic stock market, up nearly 100 per cent since it hit bottom. However, stock prices are still attractive compared to their book values and business results.
With continued Government support to promote production, it’s natural that the domestic economy should continue to see positive growth rates. Therefore, we will continue to see growth in the Index, as it is – like people say – a barometer of the economy. No professional organisations dare to give an exact figure about its growth now, but we can expect the Index to rise by 30-50 per cent between now and the end of the year.
* Nguyen Tan Hiep, HCM City: Domestic stock indices are continuously increasing. Does this show that the economy has truly recovered?
Vu Thi Kim Lien, Vice Chairwoman, State Securities Commission: In theory, the stock market rallies prior to an economic recovery by three to eight months. At present, no one is able to determine that the domestic economy has truly recovered, but recent busy securities transactions show that many investors expect the economy to rally soon.
Huyen, Ha Noi: The stock market is increasing rapidly on both the Ha Noi and HCM City markets. Is this normal, or is there a trap? I don’t believe that the market can increase so strongly without some big players propping up prices artificially.
Johan Nyvene: Strong market growth during the past month is mainly due to investors having recovered their confidence in the market, backed by improving signs in the economy as well as better business results. Money is flowing more strongly into the market while the pressure from sells by long-term investors is nearly over. With the huge trading volumes, it’s very hard to make artificial prices.
* Nguyen An Thanh, Ha Noi: Money flows strongly poured into the market recently have mounted up to VND3 trillion on some days. Where is this money coming from, and is it sustainable?
Vu Thi Kim Lien: Domestic investors, with expectations of strong rallies on the stock market, shift their money here from such other investment channels as bank deposits, real estate and gold. The number of securities accounts, which rose by more than 20,000 during the past few months, is proof.
Foreign capital has begun to grow, after a few months flowing out of the domestic market. Net foreign capital inflows reached about US$21.6 million in April and early May.
* Nguyen Minh Tu, HCM City: Is it too late to begin buying shares now?
Johan Nyvene: It seems like there is little bad news now. Many domestic investment funds are keeping significant amounts in cash and on the gold market, and these sums can flow into the stock market. We are witnessing increasing interest from new investors who are seeking opportunities to enter the market.
But the stock market seems to be over-heated currently, and we suggest investors be cautious when buying shares now. Corporate first-quarter performance results are in, and there is little news now, so we see a lack of motivation for the market to increase strongly in the short term.
* Ngo Xuan Thuy, Quang Ninh: What does the State Securities Commission plan to do during the rest of the year to help the market develop sustainably?
Vu Thi Kim Lien: We will improve the legal framework on transaction regulations, information disclosure and securities violation; put the unlisted public company market (UPCoM) and a separate bond market into operation; organise the registration and deposit of shares according to a roadmap to modernise the technology of the Securities Depository Centre; and begin research on revising the Law on Securities to better suit domestic practice and international standards.
VietNamNews
|
