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2009’s export growth target only 3 percent
The export target for 2009 was adjusted from a growth of 13 percent to 3 percent by the Ministry of Industry and Commerce (MoIC). This is part of the project to promote exports and curb trade gaps, between 2009 and 2010, that has been submitted to the government.
At the end of last year, the MoIC set a plan to strive for export growth of 13 percent in 2009, an average of 14.5 percent a year for the 2009-2010 period. However, unfavorable situations in the first quarter of 2009 “forced” the MoIC to review and adjust.
According to the MoIC, the SBV’s (State Bank of Vietnam) tightening credit affected international payment and commercial activities. In particular, domestic enterprises have to accept late payments, even suspended orders.
While exports benefited in 2008, reduced demand in 2009 made exports decrease in both volume and value (estimated 30-40 percent in value). Agricultural products such as rice, coffee, rubber, seafood products, crude oil, and coal find were affected as well. For crude oil export, the amount will decrease 3.5-4 million tonnes in 2009 and 5-6 million tonnes in 2010 due to serving the Dung Quat Oil Refinery Plant.
Based on the average export crude oil price in 2008, the decreases are equivalent to an export turnover of USD 6 billion, about 9-10 percent of the yearly export target.
In spite of slashing, the lending interest rate is higher than that of other countries. This affected the competitive capacity of commodities for export. At present, Vietnam’s basic interest rate is at 8.5 percent per annum while the figure is 0.25 percent in the US, 5 percent in China, and 0.1 percent in Japan.
The MoIC said that with the first plan, if the annual average crude oil price is above USD 70 per barrel, and commodities remain at the average price of the first nine months of 2008, and the world economic situation improves during the second quarter of 2009; export growth for 2009 will likely reach 13 percent, worth USD 70 billion.
The target is impossible regarding current statistics. With price hikes and a sharp increase in exports of some commodities, export turnover in 2008 was USD 57 billion, an increase of 17 percent.
These are the reasons why the MoIC introduced the second plan which readjusted the growth target. Accordingly, export turnover growth for 2009 is only 3 percent, worth USD 64.5 billion.
In addition to this, the MoiC set targets to promote exports of industrial commodities (handicraft and art products) and decrease exports of agricultural, forestry and seafood products; fuel and minerals.
VietNamNet, CPV
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