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Vietnam eyes 14.5 percent export growth
Vietnam’s average export growth may reach between 10 percent and 14.5 percent in 2009-2010, depending on global crude oil prices, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
Export revenues may increase by 13 percent to US$70.9 billion in 2009, and 16 percent to $82.2 billion in 2010, if the average global crude price stands at more than $70 per barrel, the ministry said in a draft plan on fostering exports during 2009-2010.
On the other hand, if crude prices hover around $50 per barrel, the country’s export turnovers may increase by 3 percent to $64.6 billion in 2009, and 17 percent to $75.5 billion in 2010.
Exports of crude oil and coal will see lower growth in line with a government decision last year to curb exports of the major staples to save them for domestic production, said the draft.
The Ministry also said the growth of agricultural, forestry and fishery products exports will also slow due to limited ability in expanding production scale.
Meanwhile, the country’s spending on imports is expected to increase by 10 percent annually over the period in the first scenario, and by 6 percent in the second.
The trade deficit is estimated to reach $15.5 billion in 2009, or nearly 24 percent of the year’s total exports, and $14.9 billion in 2010, or 20 percent of the total exports, according to the draft.
In 2008, the respective figures were $18 billion and 28.8 percent.
Earlier this week, the World Bank forecast Vietnam’s exports to rise only 5 percent to $65.8 billion as the global economic downturn reduces consumer demand. The global body also predicted imports to dip 2.5 percent to $78.4 billion.
Ngan Anh
Thanhnien
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