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Growth could reach 5%: Economist
Although Viet Nam’s economic growth might not match the Government’s target of 6.5 per cent this year, it could total 4 to 5 per cent with the contribution of agriculture, service and industry, senior economist Vo Tri Thanh said yesterday.
The Central Institute for Economic Management Policy Analysis and Development Research director made the prediction at a seminar on the global economic crisis and the importance of investment in Ha Noi yesterday.
Forecasts - from the International Monetary Fund; the Asian Development Bank; City Group, DeutscheBank, ANZ bank and the Economist Intelligence Unit - confirmed that Viet Nam faced difficulties, he said.
The global economic crisis had turned Viet Nam from a "rising star" to a victim of macro-turbulence and slowdown that could begin to dissipate by the last quarter this year.
High inflation; a budget deficit and falling trust in the market would make economic targets difficult to hit, the economist warned.
But the future for small to medium enterprises, especially those in the construction and service industries, could brighten towards the end of the year.
"Many people would take this chance to build and repair their houses," he said.
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences International Studies director Zhang Yunling said: "We don’t have crisis in China, we have an economic slowdown," adding the country’s growth rate could total between 7 to 8 per cent this year.
Great domestic demand would compensate for falling exports, he said.
Dean of the Economics Faculty, the University of Indonesia Bambang Brojonegoro told the seminar that the crisis offered the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) the chance to co-operate, especially in infrastructure development.
"It’s a good moment to boost integration," he said.
The people of ASEAN could tap their own products and services.
Other participants agreed about the need to promote domestic consumption to compensate for the loss of exports.
National Financial Policy and Monetary Consultant Council chairman Le Duc Thuy said the Government, together with many other countries, had introduced a stimulus package to boost domestic consumption.
Keio University, Japan, representative Sayuri Shirai said limited household debt had limited the impact of the crisis in East Asia.
For example, the debt rate was 110 per cent of Gross Domestic Product in Australia, 100 per cent in the US and Britain, 80 per cent in South Korea and 70 per cent in Japan while it was 13 per cent in China, he said.
ASEAN and East Asia Research Institute chief economist Fuku Kimura said: "There are many reasons to invest more in the two regions."
The participants agreed the shortage of infrastructure and fixed investment in China, Indonesia, the Philippines and Viet Nam offered the chance for investment and co-operation between the countries.
Former State Bank of Viet Nam governor Le Duc Thuy said people should be neither too optimistic nor too pessimistic but realise that "It’s impossible for all the forecast to be true."
VietNamNet/Viet Nam News
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