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2009’s inflation will be half as high of that in 2008
The commodity and service prices in 2009 will continue the downward trend of 2008, and the prices may be half as high of those in 2008, Nguyen Tien Thoa, Director of the Ministry of Finance’s Price Control Department, affirmed.
“In such conditions, the economic growth may slow down in 2009 with the GDP reaching only 5-6%,” Thoa said.
He added that though the microeconomic environment has been stabilized, there still exist many difficulties, which will have unfavorable impacts on production and people’s life. Production and businesses will meet difficulties due to the decreasing demand and the lack of investment capital.
Pham Minh Thuy, from the Market and Price Scientific Research Institute, has predicted that the consumer price index (CPI) in December 2009 would be 108-109% of December 2008.
If the forecasts become realistic, the CPI would go to a one-digit level by the end of 2009, which spells a sharper decrease than the Government’s expectations.
Dr. Vu Dinh Anh, from the and Market and Price Scientific Research Institute, said that after one year of exhaustion from high inflation, which has brought many families back to poverty, the expectation of a raising income for the majority of people cannot appear rapidly.
Anh said that the domestic market is forecasted to see slow development in the time to come as the purchasing power of consumers is not likely to be improved from 2008. In fact, the total retail turnover of services and commodities increased by 6% after excluding the price increases due to inflation.
Experts all have warned of the risk of increasing unemployment in 2009, saying that dealing with unemployment and creating more jobs must be priorities in the economic development plan in 2009.
Thoa said that it is likely that the clean water price will increase in early-2009. Meanwhile, bus tickets will also increase to a certain level, though the State will still subsidize the inner routes it places orders.
Phuoc Ha
Viet Nam Net
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