|
Export performance shows ‘resilience,’ says fund
Vietnam’s recent export performance demonstrates “resilience” in the face of global economic distress, an investment fund said.
Exports through April declined 0.1 percent, according to figures from the General Statistics Office. By comparison, Chinese exports fell 20.5 percent in the first four months compared with the same time a year earlier, China’s Customs General Administration said Tuesday.
Vietnam posted a relatively strong April export performance, even as its oil and coal shipments were hurt by lower prices and the resale of gold imported from abroad wound down, Indochina Capital Vietnam Holdings Ltd. said in a monthly note. Better-than-expected overseas sales may boost prospects for accelerating growth from 3.1 percent in the first quarter.
“Exports of textiles, electronics, rice, coffee, and seafood all increased in April, signaling true resilience,” wrote Beat Schuerch, Ho Chi Minh City-based chief representative of Indochina Capital Advisors Ltd., which manages the UK-listed fund.
Garment exporters have been expanding into markets in Eastern Europe and South America, even in the face of the global economic downturn, the Foreign Agricultural Service at the US Embassy in Hanoi said in a report last month.
“The country ships garments to the likes of Wal-Mart, which is the destination of shoppers during an income squeeze/rising lay-offs,” wrote Prakriti Sofat, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Singapore, in a note last week.
Improving outlook
The economic outlook is improving, with inflation slowing in April to the lowest level in 19 months, Indochina said. The first quarter was probably the low point for Vietnam’s economic downturn, with the pace of growth in gross domestic product likely beginning to accelerate this quarter, HSBC said.
The improving economic picture is also helping bring “life back to Vietnam’s equities market,” Indochina said.
If a recent increase in trading volumes on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange continues, “it may well indicate the beginning of the recovery of Vietnam’s stock markets,” Indochina said.
“There is still a risk the market may have another volatile swing down,” Schuerch said in a phone interview Tuesday. “It shot up very quickly. Vietnam is a very fickle market.”
The VN-Index rose Tuesday for the ninth time in the last 10 trading sessions, closing at 381.97, its highest level since October and a 62 percent gain since a 235.5 close on February 24.
“We have probably seen the bottom,” Schuerch said. “The floor now should be about 300. If foreigners start buying, we could reach 400 or maybe a little bit above.”
thanhnien, bloomberg
|
