|
Proactive enterprises can beat dire forecasts
Despite unfavourable forecasts for exporters this year, economists believe that enterprises will still prevail if they have appropriate solutions.
Dinh The Hien, head of the Economy and Information Research Institute, said that by the end of the second quarter the economic crisis could ease, particularly if big countries issued strong solutions to halt the crisis, and implemented these solutions effectively. With this in mind, Viet Nam’s exports would surely continue to see an impact.
Dr Nguyen Minh Phong, from the Ha Noi Socio-Economic Research Institute, said that the following issues should be resolved this year: exchange rate policies, maintaining traditional export markets and the balance between exports and imports.
Last year, many export companies complained that one reason their partners had cut down on imported items was because the Vietnamese products were not competitively priced. Maintaining a stable exchange rate had caused higher prices for exports compared to other market commodities, lowering their competitiveness.
In recent months, the State Bank of Viet Nam’s exchange rate policy has become more flexible, but in the near future, in order to help boost exports, exchange rates must become even more flexible, which would require the State Bank to be more pliable as well, he said.
Sharing this viewpoint, the Viet Nam Association of Small and Medium Enterprises said that if exchange rates were adjusted so as to be good for exports, it would subsequently adversely affect imports. Therefore, loans would play an important role in helping exports this year.
The State Bank had recently issued some priority policies on loan interest rates, but these policies would need to be further implemented.
This year, Viet Nam has set an export growth target of 13 per cent against last year, equivalent to US$71 billion. In addition to items that have export targets higher than last year, such as textiles and garments ($11.5 billion), footwear ($5.1 billion), rice ($1.95 billion) and coffee ($2.1 billion), many other products would have their export quotas reduced, including agriculture, forestry and fisheries products. These items could be easily impacted by output and low prices, so it has been forecast that their export turnovers could gain only $12.23 billion, a $628 million reduction (4.8 per cent compared to last year).
Economists have said that these forecasts could play a decisive role in whether enterprises gain or lose this year.
Besides, enterprises should try to expand their new markets, such as in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. These markets would not see as large of an impact from the financial crisis, as they have large consumption demands.
Dr Le Dang Doanh, an economist, said that enterprises should expand into new, large markets such as Brazil and Australia, which were abundant in natural resources and minerals, had stable economies and strong purchasing power.
Enterprises would also need to boost their exports of cheaper products, said Dr Nguyen Quang A, since because of the economic crisis, buyers were choosing cheaper products instead of luxury items. Enterprises should have more cheap products to suit different buyers, especially essential items such as footwear, clothes and foodstuff.
If enterprises could find a way to grasp onto these ideas, they might still find a way to escape the financial crisis, he said.
VietNamNet, VNS
|
