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Nation lacks accurate forecasting, market data
Viet Nam needs to invest more strongly in training professional market analysts, says Dang Kim Son, head of the Institute of Policy and Strategy under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.
Vo Tri Thanh of the Central Institute of Economic Management also emphasised that professional economic forecasting information was needed to answer questions about price fluctuations, both short- and long-term, and their impacts on domestic production.
For instance, while the prices fetched by rice exports on the global market are likely to rise during the course of this year, but it's nearly impossible to predict the most opportune time for domestic exporters to sell due to the lack of accurate market analysis, according to the chairman of the Viet Nam Food Association, Truong Thanh Phong.
Nguyen Ton Quyen, vice chairman of the Wood and Forestry Products Association, said that forecasting data remained disperse and unreliable. If, for instance, wood products exporters wanted to see import-export data, they had to seek it from both the Ministry of Industry and Trade and General Department of Customs. In many cases, such data was inaccurate and conflicting.
Viet Nam has done a poor job in economic forecasting on both micro and macro levels, agreed Tran Dinh Thien, acting director of the Viet Nam Institute of Economics. The nation has performed poorly in perceiving warning signs and in responding, and it lacks institutions of basic research and information exchange between scientists, entrepreneurs and policymakers, he said.
The poor predictions were widely attributed to a shortage of skilled economists to track supply and demand, markets and prices, both domestically and internationally. Domestic analysts also tended to lack the foreign language skills enabling them to make effective use of economic data from other countries.
The value of economic forecasts relied on information and data quality. Socio-economic data is managed separately in Viet Nam by a number of agencies.
Viet Nam would need to complete a data network linking these agencies at central and local levels. Forecasting agencies themselves needed to be re-organised in a more professional and larger-scale manner, said Son.
The National Centre for Socio-Economic Information and Forecasting was working with relevant agencies to complete an information system to allow the public to connect with databases of the Ministry of Planning and Investment, said centre director Le Dinh An.
Some experts were also suggesting a greater role for private enterprises in compiling and transferring economic data and forecasts.
VietNamNet, Viet Nam News
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