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Stock market eyes cautious optimism in second half of 2025: experts
Despite early-year volatility and geopolitical uncertainties, domestic capital flows, stable macro conditions and expectations of strong corporate profit growth are providing a credible foundation for a sustained rally.
Outside the Vietnam Exchange building in Hà Nội. — VNS Photo Ly Ly Cao
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As Việt Nam’s stock market entered the second half of 2025, investors and analysts are cautiously optimistic that renewed policy momentum, earnings resilience and monetary easing will fuel a rebound.
Despite early-year volatility and geopolitical uncertainties, domestic capital flows, stable macro conditions and expectations of strong corporate profit growth are providing a credible foundation for a sustained rally.
Nguyễn Minh Hoàng, head of the Analysis Department at VietFirst Securities Corporation, projected the VN-Index to move toward the 1,400–1,450 range in the second half of the year, building on a consolidation phase seen in recent months.
The benchmark index has hovered near its previous peak as investors digest macro developments and await key catalysts, including second-quarter earnings and policy decisions on potential retaliatory tariffs by major trading partners.
Hoàng noted that the internal strength of the Vietnamese market remained a key driver.
"Domestic macro conditions are stable, and strong institutional reform continues to support growth. These structural underpinnings, combined with sustained double-digit corporate earnings growth, keep forward valuations at reasonable levels," Hoàng told Việt Nam News.
The Vietnamese economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of global headwinds, including tight monetary policy in developed markets and regional geopolitical tensions.
Analysts believe that the country’s institutional reforms, particularly improvements to legal frameworks and administrative efficiency, are creating a more conducive environment for investment.
Additionally, market participants are closely monitoring the ongoing reclassification effort, as Việt Nam continues its pursuit of emerging market status on global indices such as MSCI and FTSE Russell.
Foreign investor sentiment remains somewhat cautious amid ongoing concerns about market accessibility and currency fluctuations.
Still, the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates by the end of the year, alongside Việt Nam’s own accommodative monetary stance, is expected to improve foreign capital inflows in the medium term. Domestically, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is maintaining an easing bias, supporting credit growth to buffer consumption and investment demand.
Liquidity, however, continues to be a concern. As several brokerages have observed, capital inflow remains fragmented. Rather than a broad-based rally, cash flow is rotating selectively across sectors, favouring those with clearer growth narratives and lower relative valuations.
"Capital flows are expected to rotate among undervalued sectors with strong fundamentals rather than lifting the market uniformly. This selective trend may continue as investor sentiment remains cautious and macro uncertainties linger," Hoàng said.
Sectors like banking, retail, infrastructure construction, real estate and securities are expected to attract the most attention, he added.
Similarly, Mirae Asset Securities anticipates continued growth in the Vietnamese stock market in the second half of the year, with the real estate sector expected to drive short-term gains, bolstered by regulatory changes and a stabilising market environment.
For sustainable medium- to long-term growth, it will be crucial for capital flows to diversify into major sectors with significant market capitalisation and leadership potential, such as banking, technology and retail, the securities firm said.
It added that the outlook is influenced by a strong combination of domestic growth drivers and notable uncertainties stemming from external factors, particularly the potential outcomes of trade negotiations with the US.
Record-breaking business goals
The second half of 2025 is set to be pivotal for the securities industry as firms push to meet ambitious targets. Several companies are aiming for record revenues and profits this year.
SSI Securities Corporation leads with a target of nearly VNĐ9.7 trillion (US$371.6 million) in revenue and over VNĐ4.2 trillion in profit before tax, marking significant year-on-year increases.
It is followed by VPS Securities JSC, aiming for VNĐ8.5 trillion in revenue and VNĐ3.5 trillion in profit before tax. The securities firm is seeking to regain growth after a four-year pause.
Saigon - Hanoi Securities JSC also targets VNĐ2.52 trillion in revenue and VNĐ1.6 trillion in profit before tax, up 26 per cent and 29 per cent year-on-year, respectively, while ACB Securities forecasts a profit before tax of VNĐ1.35 trillion, a 60 per cent increase over previous results.
MB Securities aims for VNĐ3.37 trillion in revenue and VNĐ1.3 trillion in profit before tax, marking its first trillion đồng in profit.
Even DNSE Securities, which is in the small capitalisation group and recently held an IPO, targets nearly VNĐ1.51 trillion in revenue, up 85 per cent.
The next two quarterly reports will be crucial for these goals, promising a competitive landscape in Việt Nam’s securities industry.
Outside the Vietnam Exchange building in Hà Nội. — VNS Photo Ly Ly Cao
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IPO and M&A wave
The latter half of 2025 may also see a surge in IPOs and merger and acquisition activities (M&As) as banks seek to expand their brokerage operations.
Techcombank plans to list Techcom Securities JSC (TCBS), targeting revenues of more than VNĐ9.3 trillion and profits before tax of nearly VNĐ5.8 trillion.
Additionally, Sacombank is investing up to VNĐ1.5 trillion to acquire a brokerage firm, while MSB aims for a profit of VNĐ8 trillion and plans to acquire a securities firm to enhance its market presence.
SeABank is also in the mix, with plans to acquire ASEAN Securities, pending regulatory approval. This move aims to boost its technology and customer base.
Nonetheless, risks remain on the horizon. Inflation and exchange rate volatility could exert pressure on monetary policy and investor confidence.
While Việt Nam has largely contained inflation within its target range, any sudden supply-side shock, such as energy or commodity price spikes, could complicate policy responses. Similarly, a rapid depreciation of the Vietnamese đồng could deter foreign inflows and raise hedging costs for foreign institutional investors.
Second-quarter earnings announcements, expected through July, will also serve as a critical inflexion point.
If results come in weaker than expected, analysts warn the VN-Index could briefly retreat to the 1,280–1,300 range before attempting a more sustainable breakout toward the 1,400 level in the fourth quarter.
"The market may need to absorb short-term negative news flow before resuming its upward path," Hoàng noted.
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