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Investing channels worth attention
Potential risks from the global political and economic environment continue to impact Vietnam’s economic growth recovery prospects. Trinh Ha, a financial market analyst from Exness Investment Bank, gave VIR’s Trang Thu his views on investment channels during this pivotal time.
This year witnessed an explosive growth of cryptocurrencies. Will this new asset remain an attractive channel, or will investors cash out and turn to other markets?
Trinh Ha, a financial market analyst from Exness Investment Bank
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Adolescents now enjoy greater access to technology and digital currencies, along with a wider range of investment options such as stocks, bonds, gold, and foreign exchange. Recent market volatility highlights how young investors are rapidly accumulating wealth through digital assets and technology stocks.
Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, have seen significant growth, and their investment appeal remains strong due to its limited supply, with a fixed annual mining cap. The issuance of new digital currencies is steadily declining.
Recently, Bitcoin has been recognised as an asset, and the US Securities and Exchange Commission approving the trading of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Bitcoin carries higher risks compared to gold, but the two asset classes often complement each other in terms of capital flow.
Following the US election, there was a noticeable shift of ETF investments from gold to Bitcoin. Around 45 per cent of Bitcoin holders aim to hold it long-term, reflecting the behaviour of investors, particularly long-term ones, who expect the asset to have growth potential in the future.
In the gold market, prices have surged by over 30 per cent this year. In the long term, the new US administration’s policies could impact that nation’s economy in terms of rising inflation, Fed interest rate hikes, and fears of an economic recession, potentially driving investors back to gold.
What do you think about the stock market prospects in 2025, and which industries are likely to draw in more investors?
Vietnam’s stock market may see a slowdown in foreign indirect investment inflows. However, there could be more opportunities when global markets experience shifts in risky assets or when capital flows continue to pivot towards the US stock market.
Future capital flows may return more slowly to developing or frontier markets like Vietnam. While foreign investment has begun to trickle back into developing countries in the region, such as Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia, the US election result caused capital flows to slow down again. However, since December, there have been signs of a partial recovery.
In Vietnam, strong momentum in foreign capital inflows is likely to be triggered only if significant measures are implemented to upgrade its market status. For example, an increased allocation of foreign investment funds into Vietnamese stocks could drive a substantial market breakthrough, pushing it to new highs.
Donald Trump’s trade policies present both opportunities and risks for Vietnam’s economy. Vietnam is recently a significant exporter to the US, just behind China, Canada, the EU, and Japan in trade surplus. However, his focus on countries like Mexico, Canada, the EU, and China could bring challenges to Vietnam’s position in the US market.
To avoid being targeted by such trade policies, Vietnam must reduce its trade surplus with the US by increasing imports of major assets. This way, Vietnam would face only average tariffs, around 10 per cent, similar to other countries, rather than the higher tariffs imposed on other nations. As a result, Vietnam’s market and economy could benefit significantly, especially with capital flows shifting from China to Vietnam.
Drawing lessons from the US-China trade conflict in 2018, Vietnam was one of the largest recipients of capital flows from China. This impact has influenced the entire economy, boosting consumer growth and driving corporate profits. Such factors could serve as a major driver for market growth in 2025.
However, opportunities come with the risk of tariffs related to the shifting of goods. To avoid products originating from China being flagged for investigation, certain sectors could be negatively impacted. This presents a significant risk factor for Vietnam’s economy.
Strong momentum in foreign capital can be triggered in Vietnam if key measures are put in place to upgrade its market status Photo: Shutterstock
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What strategies should investors adopt in order to protect and optimise profits in the context of a rapidly changing market?
With recent fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, youngsters are now experiencing rapid asset growth. A large portion of this comes from their holdings in digital currencies, which account for about 35 per cent, combined with investments in stocks, particularly technology stocks.
With continued support for digital currencies in the future, young investors are expected to see significant increases in their assets.
In my perspective, the most suitable strategy for investors in the market is to focus on stocks with strong fundamentals, attractive valuations, and those that benefit from the domestic or global macroeconomic environment such as banking, public investment, imports and exports, real estate, steel, and logistics. These stocks should show stable business growth or be in the early stages of a profit recovery process.
Additionally, long-term investments should only be made when there are safe entry points.
VIR
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