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VN-Index expected to grow in 2025
Mirae Asset Securities projects a positive outlook for the VN-Index in December, driven by strong demand and liquidity, with expectations to surpass the 1,300-point mark. For 2025, key growth drivers include resilient manufacturing supported by stable electricity supplies, Việt Nam’s strategic role in attracting foreign investment and recovering domestic consumption.
Mirae Asset anticipates a shift in capital flows away from banking stocks, which have already reached historical peaks and offer attractive valuations but limited room for higher performance. Instead, sectors such as financial services, retail, insurance and steel are poised to attract inflows, supporting broader gains in the VN-Index.
Looking ahead to 2025, Mirae Asset identifies several key drivers for the market's development. The domestic manufacturing and industrial sectors have shown resilience, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remaining above 50 for several months, signalling steady expansion. Stable electricity supplies, supported by advancements in renewable energy and the potential development of nuclear power, will continue to ensure consistent industrial output. Việt Nam’s role in the “China +1” strategy further enhances its appeal, attracting substantial foreign direct investment.
Domestic consumption is also recovering, although the growth rate in 2025 is expected to slow due to persistent cautious sentiment. Retail revenue growth will largely depend on cost optimisation rather than expansion. While consumer spending is anticipated to improve, it is likely to remain modest compared to pre-pandemic levels.
In the banking sector, institutions are facing challenges related to imbalances between credit growth and deposit mobilisation. Banks have increased risk provisions and issued bonds to maintain credit availability while addressing bad debts.
Meanwhile, the corporate bond market is projected to face significant challenges in the first half of 2025 as the grace period for restructured bonds under Decree 08/2023/NĐ-CP comes to an end. Liquidity and refinancing difficulties will likely persist, particularly in sectors such as real estate, construction and energy.
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