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From “making guesses” to “giving forecasts”
In order to show the panorama of the import and export activities in 2012, the Ministry of Industry and trade has carried out research on the special subject, pointing out the advantages and disadvantages and showing the solutions.
This is really a painstaking work which has been prepared very carefully, showing the high responsibility of the ministry. The report has been hailed as a breakthrough in forecasting – the job that many experts describe as “predicting by thumbing phalanges.”
In fact, the forecasts given by relevant ministries and experts do not catch the attention from the public, because there always exists a big difference between the forecasts and the reality.
In 2009, authorities predicted that the exports would increase by 18 percent over 2008. After a lot of discussions, the government submitted to the National Assembly the plan to obtain the export growth rate of 13 percent. However, later, considering the bad conditions of the world market, the target later was lowered to three percent.
The actual export achievements were much worse than the modest forecast: Vietnam got the minus export growth rate of 8.9 percent in 2009. At that time, a lot of National Assembly’s Deputies raised doubts about the capability of the management agencies. Experts also commented that the targets were just set up by feelings of the agencies, while there was no reliable base for the forecasts.
None from the Ministry of Industry and Trade claimed the responsibility for the wrong forecasting. A wise solution was found in this case that officials declined to make statements or give forecasts.
However, things seem to get quite different this year. Besides a detailed report with the forecasts about the import and export activities in 2012, Minister of Industry and Trade Vu Huy Hoang personally talked about the issue with the press confidently.
Analysts have commented that in his second term at the office, Minister Hoang has become mature in his field and shown the biggest enthusiasm.
The minister has also given useful advices to export companies. Meanwhile, in the past, the companies only got the advice from experts, or they had to analyze information and make decisions themselves.
Regarding the biggest export market for Vietnam – the US – Hoang said that in the current economic recession period, the demand in the market has decreased. However, the demand would bounce back after it decreases to a certain level. Therefore, it is expected that the exports to the US would increase in 2012, but the increases would not be as high as in 2011.
Hoang has also advised businesses to consider joining the US associations, which would help them seek the support in cases of disputes. Exporters have also been advised to learn more about the legal procedures and the technical barriers installed in the US market. In order to cement firm positions on the market, Vietnamese businesses need to satisfy the strict requirements of the market, while they also get ready to deal with the anti-dumping lawsuits.
Hoang has emphasized that businesses should pay the special attention to build up the long term partnership relations with foreign distributors, and strengthen trade promotion activities in the states in the US.
Improvement has been seen not only in the trade forecasting, but also in other business fields. In April 2011, Minister of Planning and Investment Vo Hong Phuc said the experts from the General Statistics Office predicted that the inflation rate would be 18 percent or a little higher. Eight months later, people could see the actual inflation rate at 18.13 percent.
vietnamnet
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