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Vietnam likely to reach economic growth targets in 2010
With its hands-on experience in managing the macro economy, Vietnam is likely to reach an economic growth rate of 6.5 percent this year, said Assistant Professor Phan Kim Nga, a senior expert in Vietnam who is currently working at the Chinese Academy of Social Science (CASS).
In recent years, Mrs Phan Kim Nga has carried out research projects about Vietnam that resonate with the public and Chinese scholars.
In 2008, Mrs. Nga rejected some information about the economic crisis in Vietnam and announced her studies on the Vietnamese economy to give Chinese people a proper and unbiased view on Vietnam.
A China-based Voice of Vietnam (VOV) correspondent interviewed Assistant Professor Phan Kim Nga about the Vietnamese economic picture in 2009 as well as its economic prospects this year.
Reporter: As you know, due to the global economic downturn, 2009 was a difficult year for many economies in the world, including Vietnam. What is your assessment of Vietnam’s economic picture last year?
Mrs. Nga: First of all, I want to affirm that policies to cope with the global economic downturn adopted by the Vietnamese Government in 2009 obtained outstanding results and the country still achieved an economic growth rate of 5.3 percent.
In the first half of 2009, Vietnam applied a score of measures to stimulate economic development. For example, the government’s US$8 billion economic stimulus package was used to upgrade rural infrastructure, ensure social welfare, and boost export and investment.
In the second half of 2009, after the world economy showed signs of recovery, the Vietnamese economy began to face inflation and consumer price index (CPI) hikes.
At the end of the year, the rise in gold prices and the US dollar sent the price of many products soaring. In face of this situation, the Vietnamese Government managed to curb inflation and reduce the value of the domestic currency by 5 percent. This will help boost exports in 2010.
In a nutshell, I think that the Vietnamese Government’s measures were necessary, timely and effective.
Reporter: What is your opinion about Vietnam’s economic prospects in 2010?
Mrs. Nga: Vietnam’s economic development will depend on two factors: the economy of the country itself and the world economy.
After the world economy bounced back, the prices of food and fuel shot up, leading to high increases in the price of many other products. As a result, Vietnam’s CPI also saw a sharp rise so the important thing is that the Vietnamese Government must keep the CPI under strict control.
In the near future, in addition to boosting exports, Vietnam should not limit imports of essential products and spare parts, which will enable the country to improve its economic restructuring. However, price hikes for imported products will drive the CPI up, so consequently, curbing inflation will be the biggest challenge that Vietnam needs to deal with in early 2010.
With its experience in managing the macro economy in 2008 and 2009, the Vietnamese Government is capable of ironing out snags during development to speed up economic recovery.
Reporter: As an experienced expert in Vietnam and its economy, what is your prediction for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2010?
Mrs. Nga: Many world economic experts and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have predicted that the world economy will be better in 2010. I think that this will be a great advantage to the Vietnamese economy.
With hands-on experience in managing the macro economy and the current world economic stability, Vietnam is likely to reach an economic growth rate of 6.5 percent, maybe even 7-8 percent this year.
Reporter: Thank you so much.
vov
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