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Renowned experts predict good year for businesses
2010 is likely to be a good year for domestic companies, according to some renowned economists.
Truong Dinh Tuyen, advisor to the National Financial Committee and a former trade minister, said conditions would be favourable for them to develop their business.
The economy would grow at 6.5 percent and exports at 6 percent, the trade gap would narrow, and inflation would be contained at less than 7 percent, he predicted.
The Government would continue to increase public spending with money sourced from its revenues and bond placements to stimulate economic growth, thus boosting consumer demand, he said.
It would also continue to provide credit subsidies to companies for modernising their technologies and expanding capacity, he said, with top priority given to small-and medium-d enterprises, particularly those involved in agriculture.
To create an impetus for the development of businesses, the Government would speed up administrative reform and ensure economic stability, he said.
"The main objectives of its monetary policy this year are to stabilise exchange rates to encourage exports and reduce the trade deficit," he said.
Besides the opportunities created by the Government's efforts, Tuyen said, enterprises would also enjoy favourable conditions brought about by some trade agreements that came to effect since late 2009.
These include the Viet Nam-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement under which tariffs would be eliminated on over 7,000 Vietnamese products exported to Japan, and the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement under which 90 items exported from Viet Nam to China would become tax free.
The recovery of the stock and real-estate markets is also expected to enable enterprises to expand their investment activities.
Dr. Vo Tri Thanh, Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, concurred with Tuyen, saying that a clear positive factor this year would be the economic revival, with GDP growth settling into an upward trajectory in the last months of 2009.
Industrial production and retail sales would also grow rather strongly, he said.
But he warned of some implicit risks for companies in the coming years.
Since it would take the economy three to five years to recover completely, the Government as well as enterprises needed to be careful when implementing their policies and strategies, he said.
The Vietnamese economy was easily influenced by global factors and could remain volatile, he said.
As a result of this factor, other analysts also warned of the possibility of inflation and the devaluation of the dong.
Tuyen said to cope with the difficulties Vietnamese firms needed to recognise risks in time and take appropriate measures.
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