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Experts suggest setting up national economic forecast agency
Experts have identified problems in the quality of economic forecasting, and are calling for the establishment of a national economic forecast agency.
According to Le Van Dung, Deputy Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economics Committee, Vietnam has not paid appropriate attention to investment in either labour or material facilities for economic forecasting, which has resulted in many inaccurate forecasts, and losses for the national economy.
Dung said that in order to avoid losses from inaccurate forecasts, it is necessary to establish a national economic forecast agency.
In the last two years, due to incorrect forecasts, the National Assembly has had to adjust targets for GDP growth and the consumer price index (CPI).
Of course, objective factors, including the global economic downturn, also created the need to make those adjustments; however, adjustments, regardless of the reason, can create macroeconomic instability and badly affect economic management.
Meanwhile, accurate forecasts can bring great benefits. In particular, accurate forecasts about the world’s commodity price tendencies or currency price fluctuations can help Vietnam make the right decisions on which currencies to purchase and when to sign rice export contracts.
When asked about the forecasts about Vietnam’s economy in 2009 released by institutions and associations recently, Dung said that he had doubts about the accuracy of the forecasts.
Dung affirmed that the release of unofficial information can lead to mistaken viewpoints among the public which in turn distort the market and badly affect macroeconomic management. There are many agencies that make economic forecasts, but it is necessary to have an official agency which releases official forecasts.
“In general, Vietnam needs to have an agency in charge of forecasting and releasing the forecasts, while it also needs to have other agencies giving forecasts about specific branches which can serve as reference.
In a recent talk with Tien phong newspaper recently, Dr Le Dinh An, director of the National Information and Socio-Economic Forecasting Centre under the Ministry of Planning and Investment, also said that economic forecasts in the recent past have been of low quality.
An said that it is partly because Vietnam still does not have regulations stipulating the responsibilities of forecasting agencies. “Those agencies which release inaccurate forecasts, leading to wrong decisions by policymakers – these agencies have to take responsibility for this. A government decree needs to stipulate the issue,” An said.
Regarding statistics, Dr Tran Du Lich, a senior economist, has suggested a new method to reckon gold volume. Lich said that the volume of gold exploited should be seen as industrial output, jewellery gold should be seen as a commodity, while bar gold should be reckoned under money supply, it should not be calculated into import-export turnover.
VietNamNet, TP
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