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Recovery plan needed to reform
Le Dang Doanh, a senior economist, emphasised the need for an economic recovery plan with Nguoi Lao Dong (The Labourer).
Some say that the US crisis has hit its bottom, while China’s economy is recovering. In this situation, can we hope for recovery in our country as well?
In my opinion, it depends on what basis we use to assume that the world economy has hit the bottom of its crisis. If we base it on the US real estate market, we cannot say that we have hit the bottom of the crisis. If we have a look at the initial profits some banks have regained, we can say that the economic downturn has gradually begun to slow down.
Anyway, it is impossible to assert that the US economic crisis has reached the most serious level. The reason for this is that aside from the real estate market, they also have the automotive industry which could have a dramatic impact on the US economy. Therefore, neither US President Barack Obama nor the International Monetary Fund has been able to tell when the world’s biggest economy will be recovered.
What is the influence on Viet Nam’s economic recovery?
We do not have a comprehensive, sufficient evaluation of the global economic crisis’ impact on the country’s economy. There have been optimistic opinions that it would be rehabilitated by June. However, there are different opinions in other countries. For instance, Singapore said that they would have a negative growth rate of minus six or minus eight per cent for another five or six years.
I guess we should submit a sufficient and comprehensive impact report to the National Assembly regarding the impact of the world economic slowdown on Viet Nam based on an evaluation of exports, foreign investment, job creation and so on. Thus, we would be able to consider proper solutions to the issue. This will also help develop unity among the public to overcome the difficulties facing the country.
What do you think is the most necessary factor for Viet Nam’s economic recovery?
Looking for new markets. American people are tightening their belts. The US economy remains the world’s largest, but American consumers will surely change their extravagant consumption habits. Therefore, we need to look for new markets, even in Asia or Southeast Asia. The Middle East and Latin American markets also need to be approached.
Which has influence on the country’s economic recovery, domestic or foreign factors?
The impact of the global economic downturn on Viet Nam’s economy is quite critical because the country’s export value makes up 72 per cent of the GDP. We have to boost exports because the domestic market cannot spend US$9 billion in shopping or consume 1 million tonnes of coffee every year. It is necessary to increase domestic demand, but to effectively do so depends on many other factors. For instance, Americans spend more than we or other Asians do because they have a sound system of social security and welfare.
So how will the $1 billion stimulus package, which could be raised to $8-9 billion, play a role in the country’s economic recovery?
The stimulus package will certainly create a positive impact on recovering the economy or preventing economic slowdown. The efficiency of the package will depend on the implementation, which needs to be carefully observed and examined. If we provide enterprises with capital to help them boost their production and exports, we would also have to examine how effective they use the support.
Could a recovery scenario for Viet Nam’s economy be released at this time?
It should be discussed because economic recovery needs exhaustive preparation and keen measures. The more the Government, enterprises and people make efforts to overcome the difficulties, the faster the economy will recover. The speed of recovery depends primarily on our reform.
What is the most feasible scenario for Viet Nam’s economy?
We have to step up the reform process. The crisis is also an opportunity for us to thoroughly inspect all the current investment projects as well as the activities of enterprises. Enterprises would do well to not only re-examine the efficiency of their businesses but also look for more prospective markets.
Do you think our economy will recover in the third quarter of the year?
Effective recovery of the economy depends on a number of factors. If we enhance investment in construction, this sector could recover. If we take a look at the rice exports, we could consider its growth. However, in order to have a comprehensive evaluation of the country’s economic recovery, we need an overview on enterprise activities, trust in business, GDP growth, and so on.
VietNamNet, Viet Nam News
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