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Economy already bottoms out
Vietnam’s economy has bottomed out and is poised for stronger growth in the second quarter - expected at 3.5% to 3.8% compared to 3.1% in the first quarter - given positive signs last month, the National Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast said.
All indicators, alongside the better confidence among the business circle, pointed to a brighter outlook for this year, according to the center under the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the Government’s website chinhphu.vn reported.
Many economic experts agree with the projection, saying that the economy would regain the growth momentum largely owing to the effects of the Government’s stimulus program.
Industrial production values of some commodities increased sharply last month, with fertilizer increasing 10%, synthetic fabrics 11%, glass 62%, and liquefied gas 33%, the center reported, citing figures from the General Statistics Office.
The nation exploited over 800,000 tons of seafood over the past four months, a 8.8% year-on-year increase and the highest during recent years, while the overall retail of commodities and services also reached over VND360 trillion in revenue, increasing by 21% year on year.
The economic growth will also help generate more jobs in this quarter, increasing by 0.4% to 0.7% against the first quarter, said the center’s director Le Dinh An.
Unlike previous years, Vietnam has seen difficulties in export and foreign investment in 2009, resulting in a smaller cash flow. However, An said that the two stimulus packages worth a total of US$8 billion would help revive the economy.
“Vietnam’s economic growth is particularly relied on capital supply and construction. The Government has raised money sources over the past time which will certainly help develop the economy and creation of jobs,” An was quoted on Tuoi Tre on Sunday.
While positive effects of the stimulus packages are to emerge stronger between May and July, the Government may have to struggle to reach the targeted GDP growth of 5% in 2009 because some effects will only be seen in the following years, he said.
To ensure the sustainable growth in the second quarter, the center suggested the Government to issue tougher policies to choke off the economic downturn. Besides, the Government should push up capital disbursement for construction, research and development, and expansion of export markets.
The Government should give priority to opening more markets for enterprises while expanding policies to restructure the economy, An said.
Meanwhile, the Government in the regular meeting due to open today in Hanoi will review effects of the stimulus packages on every sector of the economy. Other major issues at the meeting are the administration reform and support for poor and jobless residents in April.
vietnamnet, sgt
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