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Vietnamese consumers believe the economy will escape from recession soon
Vietnamese consumers are the most confident in the world about an early resumption of economic ‘good times,’ according to a recent multinational survey.
In the first half of 2007, according to the semi-annual Nielsen index of consumer confidence, which is measured quarterly in 50 markets worldwide, the confidence of Vietnamese consumers peaked at 118 points. It slid to 97 points in the second half of 2008 and then to 85 points in the first half of this year. In this respect, Vietnamese consumers are like all others – the world financial crisis has diminished their confidence. The latest Neilsen survey reports global consumer confidence has hit an historic low.
Even so, Vietnamese consumers prove to be remarkably more optimistic than consumers in the other forty-nine countries. Fully 60% of Vietnamese who were polled answered “yes” when asked if they thought Vietnam would be out of recession by the end of 2009. Comparable percentages were 56% in India (the next highest), and 40% in Denmark (3rd). Only 32% of consumers in Vietnam’s giant neighbor, China, and slightly less than 20% in the US expressed optimism about an early recovery.
The Neilsen survey polls consumers on job prospects, personal financial situation, and purchasing plans and capabilities for the next 12 months. The overall global confidence index has dropped by a record 7 points since the second quarter of 2008. No previous surveys has recorded a global decrease in consumer confidencechanges of more than four points.
The latest survey shows an interesting contrast between the US and China. In the US, consumer confidence plummeted seventeen points year over year (from 100 to 83) from the second half of 2007 to 2008, but now, at 80 stands only slightly below the level of 2008, and slightly above the global average. Meanwhile, though the consumers of China remains among the world’s ten most confident, China’s second quarter 2009 level is seven points less than a year earlier. And, according to Neilsen, a surprising 85% of Chinese denied that a recession is in progress.
Though the overall confidence index has been sliding, people in all countries in the world cherish hope of a better prospect in the coming years. The ratios of people who said ‘yes’ to the question: “Do you think that your country will get out of the economic recession in the next 12 months” have reportedly increased in most of countries.
Not just most optimistic about a rapid recovery, in the recent poll Vietnamese consumers were sixth in the world in terms of the optimism about jobs (32% said that they have good job prospects in the next 12 months). Thirty five percent of Vietnamese respondants said that they plan to purchase new-technology equipments.
However, Vietnamese people also expressed concern about the future. Thirty six percent said that possible loss of their job is their biggest concern, while 22% said they worry most about “economic recession.”
The Vietnamese government has announced a demand stimulus packages amounting to 7% of GDP, a relatively high ratio in comparison with other countries. By comparison, China’s stimulus package is estimated at 13.3% of GDP, the US 5.5%, Japan 2%, India 0.4% and Indonesia 1.3%). The packages are hoped to help ease the impacts of the economic recession, stimulate economic growth and restore Vietnamese consumers’ confidence.
vietnamnet, vneconomy
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