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ADB forecasts 4.5% growth for Vietnam
Vietnam’s economic growth will fall to 4.5 percent this year due to the global slowdown and would recover to 6.5% next year, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said Tuesday.
The annual growth figure is down from 6.2 percent in 2008.
The Asian Development Outlook 2009 report, which was released Tuesday, said the country’s economic growth slowed and is forecast to moderate further this year, before starting to pick up in 2010.
“Inflation is projected to be relatively low both years. The current account deficit is expected to widen in 2009 and narrow in 2010,” the report said.
“The main near-term challenge is to limit the slowdown in growth while keeping the fiscal and current account deficits in check.”
The report added, “In the medium term, the Government needs to ratchet up growth without fueling inflation or widening the current account deficit.”
Economic prospects
According to the ADB, Vietnam's near-term economic prospects are clouded by an unusually high level of uncertainty, primarily for two reasons.
First, the global financial crisis and economic downturn are likely to reduce FDI and remittance inflows, as well as further crimp exports, foreign portfolio investment inflows, and overall growth. The global slowdown will also likely weigh on world commodity prices and reduce inflation pressures. The strength and duration of these effects will depend on how long global financial conditions remain weak and how deep and prolonged the global downturn will be.
Second, there is uncertainty about what additional fiscal stimulus the Government might adopt (beside the measures approved in January – February this year). Stimulus measures may well lift growth, but they are also likely to widen the fiscal and current account deficits, and may stoke inflation.
Tuong Thuy
sai gon giai phong
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