|
Businesses still planning on high dividends in 2009
Joint-stock companies are building business plans for 2009 amid contradictory forecasts. However, most companies believe that the dividends will be equal to those of 2008 or higher, and higher than deposit interest rates.
Dividends will be equal to 2008
Business plans for 2009 must be approved by shareholders in the first quarter of the year. Dividend levels will prove to be very important to shareholders, as they will not care as much about share prices as previously.
Therefore, dividend targets are giving headaches to companies’ boards of management, while the forecasts about the economy in 2009 prove to be contradictory. Some experts believe in the quick recovery of the national economy, while others think that the recovery will come later.
However, most joint-stock companies say that the targeted dividends in 2009 will be equal to those of 2008. Meanwhile, many companies do not want to pay higher dividends than in 2008 in order to avoid pressure on the boards of management. The dividends will be calculated based on modest production and business forecasts.
Banks: stability is priority
Sacombank has not made a final decision yet, but the bank has estimated the profit of VND1,500-1,600bil in 2009, equal to or a little higher than the adjusted profit plan for 2008.
Bui Tan Tai, Deputy General of Asia Commercial Bank (ACB), confesses that he has never spent so much time making business plans as this year.
Tai said that in 2008, ACB got VND2,500bil in profit, and the profit will not be much higher this year. The bank plans to open 50 more transaction points in 2009, but will not employ many more staffs.
Tran Phuong Binh, General Director of East Asia Bank, said that banks will be able to avoid difficulties as they have learnt experience from 2008. In 2009, the bank plans to get the profit of VND900bil, or VND200bil more than in 2008. Binh also said that dividends would certainly be higher than deposit interest rates.
Commenting about the targeted dividends in 2009, economists said that the predicted dividends in 2009 may not be high if considered from the angle of growth rate. However, if dividends are as high as 2008’s, this should be seen as good news, as the bank deposit interest rate is expected to go down to below 7%. The dividend of 15%, for example, would be double that rate.
There will be a lot of plans
In 2008, the business plans of companies were drawn up based on the GDP growth rate of 8.5% in 2007 and the targeted GDP growth rate of 8.5% for 2008. However, the difficulties of the national economy forced the National Assembly to adjust the targeted GDP growth rate to 7%, and the implemented figure was 6.23%.
Currently, companies are drawing up business plans for 2009 based on the 2008 GDP growth rate of 6.23%, and predicted GDP growth rate of 6.5%. A lot of companies say that they will be cautious in drawing up plans and try to anticipate difficulties. Other companies say that they will have ‘open plans’, i.e. flexible plans which allow them to push up production and business in favourable conditions and adjust the business plan in the context of bad conditions.
Tuoi tre
|
