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Vietnam’s 2009 imports to be lower
The Vietnamese government has cut its forecast for 2009 imports by around 13 percent to US$84 billion from a previous forecast of $96.6 billion due to falling commodity prices, according to a report last week.
The trade deficit in 2009 would be between $17 billion and $18 billion, instead of $19.9 billion forecast last month, the Ministry of Industry and Trade report said. It is expected to be $19 billion this year.
A smaller trade deficit would reduce the squeeze on its balance of payments, a factor analysts have said is putting pressure on authorities to devalue the dong in 2009.
Vietnam’s currency could be devalued next year due to a worsening balance of payments and bad bank debts while the government also needs to prop up exports hit by the global economic downturn, economists said last Tuesday.
“Given the current situation and the early months of 2009, prices of many raw materials, like steel, steel billets, fertilizer and oil products, are seen as falling 30- 50 percent from 2008,” the trade ministry’s report said.
“Imports in 2009 will not see sudden increases as in 2008,” due to the government’s efforts to curb imports, like tightening spending on inefficient projects and raising import tariffs, it said.
The Ministry of Finance Sunday raised import tariffs on several oil products to the limit of 40 percent following a decline in world crude oil prices.
Vietnam’s imports could still rise next year but lower commodity prices would stunt any growth in the value of imports, the trade ministry said.
It has projected spending on machinery, spare parts and key raw material to account for 76 percent of total imports next year.
Paper, vegetable oil, gemstones and precious metals would be responsible for a combined 16.7 percent of 2009 imports while goods subject to import curbs like cars, tobacco and motorcycle parts would make up the remaining 7.3 percent.
Reuters
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