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Wrong forecasts not to blame for unsold rice: MARD
Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Cao Duc Phat has claimed responsibility for the big inventory of unsold rice. However, he said that it is unfair to place all the blame on the government’s incorrect forecasts about the world’s supply and demand.
Farmers complain that the government gave wrong forecasts about food security and the world’s rice price. Because of this, Vietnam did not export rice when the world’s price was high, and is now trying to boost exports when the world’s price is decreasing, causing farmers big losses. What would you say about that?
The government did not order the halt of exports at the end of March, it just asked that new contracts not be signed as it foresaw that winter-spring crop rice would only be able to meet domestic demand and yield 2.3-2.4mil tonnes for export.
By the end of March 2008, enterprises had signed contracts to export 2.4mil tonnes of rice. Therefore, the winter-spring crop output was just enough to meet the domestic demand and fulfill the signed contracts. The government will release new decisions later after considering new situations.
Several hundred thousand tonnes of summer-autumn crop rice have been left unsold, pushing farmers in the Mekong River Delta into big difficulties. What do you think are the reasons behind the large volume of unsold rice?
A lot of factors have been affecting the rice price. Our rice output is high thanks to favourable weather and farmers’ efforts. Therefore, the supply is profuse. Meanwhile, the demand for rice in the world has decreased.
The third reason is that enterprises, due to difficulties in accessing bank loans, did not purchase rice in large quantities from farmers. They only collected rice from farmers after they signed contracts with foreign importers.
Fourthly, as rice once went for good prices, farmers tried to expand production by using high-yield rice varieties like IR 50404 which can bring high yield but low quality. The rice proves to be unsalable at this moment, when the demand is low.
How about the wrong forecasting about domestic food security and the rice price in the world?
Forecasting is really a difficult job, especially this year, when there are a lot of unexpected ups and downs. I can say that the government’s ministries tried their best to keep a close watch over the situation. For example, we correctly forecast the output of every crop and export capability.
Do you think that the gap between the forecast and the reality is because of the limited capability of forecasting agencies?
Forecasting is a difficult job. There were too many unexpected factors this year.
Which ministry will claim responsibility for the wrong forecasts?
It depends. If the forecast about the rice output is wrong, the responsibility belongs to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.
The wrong forecasts have had certain impacts on rice production. What do you think about that?
We understand that we need to take responsibility in the problem. However, I have to say that it is untrue to say that rice remains unsold totally because of the wrong forecasts.
What have you done to help farmers overcome difficulties?
We have asked the Northern and Southern Food Corporations to try their best to purchase rice from farmers in order to keep prices firm and ensure profit for farmers. Moreover, we have also instructed them to negotiate export contracts.
VNN
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