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Macro economy sees both positivity and instability
The macro-economy has seen positive signs recently but will remain in a state of instability until the end of this year, according to economist Vo Tri Thanh, speaking at the 2008 Economic Forum in Hanoi on Oct. 2.
Thanh, Chairman of the Department for Research of International Economic Integration Policy under the Central Institute for Economic Research and Management, cited outstanding economic achievements in the first nine months of this year, demonstrating that the Government’s eight solutions to boost the economy have been taking effect.
The consumer price index (CPI), though remaining high has slowed down in recent months. During September, the CPI rose just 0.18 percent over the previous month, the lowest monthly rise so far this year. The macro-economic balance showed an initial improvement with total import value dropping to 5.8 billion USD in September, down from almost 6.3 billion USD in August. The flexible monetary policy that is currently in place has helped to stabilise the foreign currency market and increases securities prices.
Regarding the challenges and risks to the Vietnamese economy during the remaining months of this year, Thanh said that prices of some consumer goods, such as electricity prices would be still kept in check despite the continual fluctuation of global oil prices which, when combined with the effects of salary increases, can result in high risk of inflation.
According to Thanh, difficulties lie ahead in attracting investment capital from overseas sources due to the instability of the global economy.
He said that, in order to maintain stability of the macro-economy, it is necessary to synchronously coordinate both macro and micro-economic policies, continue the process of administrative reform and implement a strict monetary policy, whilst continuing to ensure an adequate supply of capital for important projects and improving the capacity of State agencies’ in the management and supervision of financial and monetary issues.
Ms. Maenner, a representative of the German Organisation for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) – who co-organised the forum, said that the Vietnamese economy has been opened at a certain level.
However, she said, to ensure sustainable growth, Vietnam should promote administrative reforms, ensure data transparency, have mechanisms in place for regular economic analysis and forecast and establish a close working relationship between the government and various management agencies in managing the macro-economy.
During the one-day forum titled “Stabilising the macro economy – challenges and solutions”, about 100 representatives presented reports and shared experiences regarding the management of Vietnam’s international payment balance, monetary policies and exchange rates, increasing the efficiency of state investment capital, adopting measures to develop the securities market, the implementation of policies addressing management of a number of consumer goods and ensuring social security in the current macro-economic situation.
The participants included representatives of the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the German embassy.
VNA
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