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Greenback unexpectedly rises
The greenback has been increasing in price for the last two days, while no expert can account for it.
On the website of the State Bank of Vietnam on October 21, the interbank exchange rate was quoted at VND16,519/US$1, representing a slight decrease over yesterday, October 20. However, the exchange rates quoted by commercial banks saw a sharp increase to VND16,800/US$1. Prior to that, the exchange rates unexpectedly soared from VND16,610/US$1 to VND16,670/US$1 on October 20.
As such, the VND/US$ exchange rate increased by VND190/US$1 just within two days, a sharp increase if noting that the rate had been hovering around VNMD16,610/US$1 for a month.
The noteworthy thing is that following the greenback price fluctuation before July, it had not reached the VND16,800/US$1 threshold until two days ago.
Vietcombank, the leading bank in international payment, is now quoting the exchange rate at VND16,830/US$1, which is nearly the ceiling level (the trading band is +/-2% ).
The dollar price increase is really a surprise to many businesses and experts, who believed that the exchange rate would stay stable in the time to come thanks to profuse supply.
Thoi bao Kinh te Vietnam has quoted bankers as saying that international payment activities are going normally with no sudden changes in foreign currency supply and demand.
Meanwhile, the trade deficit has been curbed at low levels in recent months, which means that Vietnam does not have any problems in foreign currency supply.
As such, the factors that can lead to a greenback price increase do not exist at the moment.
In an effort to explain the sudden greenback price increases, experts have put forward some suppositions as follows:
First, bankers are anticipating that the demand for foreign currencies will increase in the last months of the year.
Second, as a result of the global financial crisis, overseas remittance is forecast to decrease, thus affecting supply.
Third, the prices of Vietnamese farm produce exports have decreased, thus raising concerns about the shortage of foreign currencies in the time to come.
Fourth, the dollar’s value is tending to increase in the world’s market, which is influencing the domestic market.
Fifth, the State Bank of Vietnam has slashed the basic interest rate, which has led to the value decrease of the local currency against the dollar.
On the black market, the dollar price has also soared to nearly VND17,000/US$1, while it was VND16,570-16,590/US$1 late last week.
VNN
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