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Stock market will recover: poll
The majority of the 27,000 readers who participated in an online survey conducted by Thoi bao Kinh te Vietnam said they believe the stock market will recover after months of falling down.
On June 20, the deepest low of the stock market was hit when the VN Index fell to 366 points. Two months later, the market witnessed impressive recovery with the VN Index hitting 561.85 points on August 27. However, the market has witnessed a step back since the beginning of September as the index dropped to 532.71 points on September 8.
About the VN Index’s performance in the upcoming months, 60% of polled readers believe that the VN Index will surpass the 550-point threshold by the end of the year.
In August, when Vietnam’s stock market saw the highest growth rate in the world, some foreign institutions and experts predicted that the VN Index would hit 600 points by the end of the year, while more optimistic people believed that the index would reach 650.
The polled readers have every reason to believe in the recovery of the stock market. The government has estimated that the economic growth rate will reach 7%, while the inflation rate is expected to be restrained at below 25% this year. The goal of restraining the trade deficit at below $20bil also proves to be within reach.
In the stock market, price increases after a ‘hibernation’ period can bring fat profit, as high as 100%, which helps attract new investors.
The fact that 60% of readers believe in the recovery of the market proves to be a good thing for the market, as investors’ psychology always has a great impact on market prices.
However, a relatively high percentage (40%) of polled readers predicted that the VN Index would be below 550 points by the end of the year, while a few of them said the index would be below 350. The investors do not think the market will see strong recovery because they fear the difficulties of the national economy will hurt listed companies, the difficulties will be reflected in the business reports to be released by listed companies in Q3.
14% of readers forecast the index would be between 500 and 549 points (3,969 readers).
In general, all polled readers, both optimistic and pessimistic, believe that the most difficult period of the stock market is over, and that it is impossible that the index will fall as sharply as it did in July. That explains why only 20% of readers predicted the VN Index would reach above 550 points in the first stage of the 2-month survey, while the figure rose rapidly to 60% in the second stage of the survey.
VNN
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