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Market forecast- a key to exporters' success
This year, Vietnam’s pepper sector has made a big profit thanks to high export prices, fluctuations in the international market and the accurate forecast of market prices.
A VOV reporter interviewed the president of the Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA), Do Ha Nam, about pepper export activities.
VOV: What has been the biggest advantage to the pepper sector since early this year?
Mr Nam: The biggest advantage is attributable to high sales prices despite a slight increase in export volumes. So far, the pepper sector’s export earning has reached US$200 million and is expected to hit a record high of US$300 million by the end of this year. This shows that if Vietnam can maintain a stable market, farmers can sell their pepper at good prices.
VOV: Many of Vietnam’s agricultural products like coffee and pepper are exported in the form of raw materials. Does this affect export efficiency?
Mr Nam: The export of unprocessed products is a matter of course in the initial period of market development. However, if we want to maintain a stable and sustainable market, the volumes of unprocessed products should be reduced ad the volume of processed products should be increased.
Over the past few years, the agricultural sector has recorded positive achievements. Almost 35 percent of pepper exported is now processed as is approximately 20 percent of coffee.
Pepper exporters earned US$100 million between 2001-2002 but the same volume could fetch US$300 million this year. Also during that time, the export price for 1 million tones of coffee was US$500 million and now it jumped to around US$2 billion. In other words, the export value of pepper has increased by three times and coffee by four times.
However, if the Government and businesses pour more investment into processing and market forecasting, Vietnam will be able to reduce crude exports and increase the total export turnover.
VOV: Vietnam is taking the top spot in the world for pepper production. How has the VPA promoted coordination between producers and consumers?
Mr Nam: Vietnam’s pepper output accounts for 50 percent of the world’s consumption. This means the Vietnamese market has a certain impact on the global market. Over the past years, Vietnam has annually exported around 2,000 tonnes of pepper at a price of US$600 per tonne but at the moment it can export as many as 100,000 tonnes at the price of US$1,000 per tonne. Therefore if Vietnamese businesses co-operate well with coffee growers the market will become more stable.
With support from the press and close coordination among domestic and foreign associations we can provide the latest market information for them to evaluate markets and avoid bartering to create a stable market. In recent time, farmers did not have to sell pepper at a lower price. This is an initial achievement.
VOV: Many people say that it is difficult to boost exports in the last quarter of the year as most target set for key products such as rice, coffee and pepper have been fulfilled. What is the prospect of pepper exports?
Mr Nam: In fact, the pepper crop has ended for the year. The volume of pepper in stock is about 30,000 tonnes. If we export this volume we can earn around US$100 million. In the meantime, coffee growers and other farmers have begun new crops and the forecast of export prices for coffee is promising. This is good news. But I think there will not be any considerable increase in agricultural exports in the remaining months of this year.
VOV: What should export management activities focus on?
Mr Nam: As an exporter I think that market forecasting is an important factor. The Government should pay more attention to it and consider it a key task to help farmers avoid risks. To have good information, we must collect both domestic and foreign information and build diagrams and charts to limit risks.
VOV: What measures will VPA devise to help businesses fulfill export targets?
Mr Nam: To help the pepper sector develop sustainably, we must build a stable market and ensure prices for farmers. The association will provide good market information to businesses and farmers.
VOV: Thank you very much.
VOV
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