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Export to take hit from global woes: experts
Vietnam's export of rice and crude oil have dropped by a whopping 30 percent since July
The final four months of this year and even next year will be a hard time for Vietnamese exports due to the economic slowdown in Europe and the US, experts have said.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade said it expects exports during the final four months this year to be US$21.75 billion.
It means the monthly figure will remain the same as the average figure of previous months, unusual since export revenues often surge at the end of the year.
Supachai Panitchpakdi, Secretary General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development, said Vietnam’s exports would be adversely affected by the falling demand in major economies, especially the US
Vietnam had a record trade deficit in 2007 of nearly $11 billion or 15 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
The deficit could be exacerbated this year by the slowdown in Europe and the US as well as the falling dollar, he warned.
Economist Le Dang Doanh, former director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, said exports to the US would be hurt next year, leading to a slowdown in GDP growth.
“I think the GDP growth rate next year will be only 5 percent,” he said.
Chairman of the Government Office, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, said earlier this month the government has targeted 7 percent growth.
In 2008 it is expected to be 6.5-7 percent.
Many exporters said they are struggling to cope with high interest rates and a shortage of funds.
The output of several major export items like crude oil and coal have declined while the prices of coffee, rubber and coal have started to fall.
Rice and crude oil have dropped by a whopping 30 percent since July.
Although falling fuel costs have helped drag down prices and many banks have lowered interest rates, the outlook for Vietnamese exports remains middling.
Experts warned that though Vietnam’s prices are competitive, it cannot compete with other countries unless it improves quality.
Panitchpakdi said Vietnam should strengthen ties with other ASEAN countries to find more markets for its products, instead of depending on traditional markets like the EU and the US
The country’s exports to the rest of ASEAN in the first seven months of this year increased 44.3 percent yearon-year to $6.8 billion.
In the same period, exports to the US and EU markets were worth $6.6 billion and $6.3 billion respectively.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade targets exports of $65 billion for the whole year, a 33.9 percent increase.
Thanhnien
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