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US holds early post-recession promise: Economist
A leading Vietnamese economist believes Vietnamese exporters should expect new opportunities in the US as it is likely to be first major economy to recover rather than Japan or the European Union.
The US government’s US$787- billion stimulus package has made positive impacts on the economy, which have shown up in recent encouraging industry and consumers indices, Le Dang Doanh of the Institute of Development Studies said at a conference on Saturday.
Vietnam’s exports to the US, its second largest export market after the EU, reached $11.9 billion last year, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade. However, Vietnam’s exports to the US in the first half of 2009 fell by 8 percent to $6.2 billion compared to the same period last year, the ministry said.
US imports from Vietnam fell by 30.4 percent in the same period due to falling demand, the ministry said.
However, according to a US International Trade Commission report earlier this month, Vietnam was the only one among the top 30 exporters to the US to increase shipments through May.
Nguyen Duy Khien, head of American Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, said Vietnamese products have gained just a small share in the US market, which may give them more room to expand after the crisis.
According to Khien, Vietnamese coffee accounted for 8 percent of the US coffee imports, 4 percent of footwear and 2 percent of apparel. China, in contrast, made up 80 percent of all US apparel imports, he said.
Meanwhile, China’s shift in its economic strategy, which now focuses more on the domestic market, will also allow Vietnamese exporters to expand their markets, Doanh said.
However, Vietnamese products will face stronger trade and technical barriers in overseas markets as many governments are trying to protect their own businesses, he cautioned.
At a meeting of the G-20 Leaders’ Summit early this year, leaders of 19 of the world’s largest national economies, plus the European Union introduced a host of measures to cope with the worst economic slump since the Great Depression.
According to Doanh, while 12 measures aimed to support global free trade, 47 others seek to protect businesses in each G-20 member country.
Minh Quang
thanhnien
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