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Passivity will lead to further decreases in exports: NA
Ha Van Hien, Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economics Committee, said that if Vietnam maintains a passive attitude, it will see exports further decrease. Hien also said that it is now too early to say if Vietnam can obtain the targeted economic growth.
The global economic recession has been telling on Vietnam’s exports, and the ‘blow’ it has dealt to Vietnam’s economy is just the initial impact. What is your viewpoint about that?
As we have been relying on the world’s market, any happenings in the market will have impacts on Vietnam’s economy. Exports prove to be one of the sectors which has experienced the earliest impacts of the world’s economic crisis.
In January 2009, Vietnam exported $3.8bil worth of products, a decrease of 18% from December 2008 and 24% from January 2008. This is the clearest sign of the impacts of the global recession on Vietnam’s exports.
The government has applied a lot of measures to prevent recession. Do you think that the measures have brought the desired effects yet?
I think we should not be impatient, as all policies take time to show effects.
When do you think the export stimulus measures will show effects as both export and domestic markets are being narrowed?
It will be very difficult for us to obtain a 13% growth rate in exports in 2009. However, if we stay passive and take no actions, exports will see further decreases.
We are putting our hope in the investment stimulus measures, but don’t ministries and branches fear that complicated procedures will make the measures insignificant?
The government is planning a series of measures, including the issuance of government bonds and strengthening investment in infrastructure projects. However, we need to focus on the disbursement, I mean, all the VND50tril worth of government bonds needs to be used up in 2009.
Do we still need additional measures to ensure that the investment stimulus measures will be effective?
The government needs to promulgate some documents on simplifying investment procedures, so as to create the most favourable conditions for making investment.
The government is going to submit plans on amending some provisions of the laws related to construction investment to the National Assembly for its meeting in May 2009.
Will we have to adjust the economic growth rate target, like we did in 2008, if we feel that we are unable to reach the target?
Big difficulties were seen in January 2009, especially in exports and investment. However, it is now just February and it is too early to say if we will reach the target or not, or if we will have to lower the target.
Do you think that the prospects of foreign direct investment (FDI) are also gloomy?
In 2008, we got record foreign direct investment with the registered capital of over $60bil and implemented figure of $12bil. Meanwhile, we just attracted some $200mil in January 2009. The figure, if compared with the average $5bil/month in foreign direct investment attraction in 2008, proves to be worrying. However, I think that foreign direct investment will only decline in the short and medium terms.
VietNamNet, Tien phong
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