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Social housing projects may cool real estate market
Many social housing projects opened for sale and are handed over this year, along with big capital flows at preferential interest rate for this segment, which may cool down the real estate market in the two biggest cities, especially the condominium segment.
By the end of this year, Hanoi plans to have completed 4,670 condominium units under a social housing scheme. Besides this, the capital is currently considering the approval of the investment policy for two projects in Tien Duong commune, Dong Anh of around 80 hectares, which could begin construction in the first quarter of 2026
The capital is also reviewing the addition of 15 new plots to build social housing condominium projects, consisting of about 2,000 apartments for each development.
Nguyen Anh Que from the Vietnam Real Estate Association believes that the number of social and commercial units could rise to more than 300,000, mainly located in Dong Anh, Gia Lam, Thanh Tri, and Quoc Oai districts, resulting in a potential cool down for the condominium market.
"From the end of 2025, the number of Hanoi’s social condominiums will rise significantly, with about 4,000 units across 10 projects. In the 2027–2029 period, the number of social condominium and commercial ones must reach at least 300,000 units," Que said.
The Ministry of Construction has recently set a target of one million social-housing condominiums built by 2030. From 2021 to the third quarter of 2024, 622 social condominium projects were implemented nationwide, totalling over 565,000 units.
Ho Chi Minh City is expected to complete and put into use eight social condominium projects and one worker condominium project, raising to a total of 5,619 units during 2021-2025.
Since 2021, the city has completed and put into use five social condominium projects, with a scale of 2,377 units and one worker social condominium project (partially completed) with a scale of 368 units. In addition, three social condominium projects and one project for workers are under construction with a scale of 2,874 units.
At present, the mid-range segment continues to be scarce in the two big cities. Apartments at selling prices of under $1.500 are getting rarer from the market. Experts said that increasing selling prices push the housing market away from its fact value, raising liquidity risks and the gap between products on the market and the desires, needs and capabilities of the majority of home buyers.
According to the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers, raising market supply is one of the ways to calm down the selling price of apartments. In which, the development of social condominium projects will enable the average selling price of apartments to cool down to meet real demand.
In fact, the price of high-end apartments has not gone up in recent months. Nguyen Quoc Hung, vice chairman and general secretary of the Vietnam Banking Association, said that owners of high-end apartments will be at risk. When a lot of social condominium projects are implemented, the real estate market will return to its true nature, no longer increasing in price by 50-100 per cent as in last year.
Following the direction of the government, more bank capital flows will be poured into the social housing segment soon. Many banks have prepared capital sources for social housing loans with preferential interest rates.
"In the future, if the procedures for social housing projects are loosened, about $5.8 billion at a preferential interest rate will be poured into social housing, the cash flow into this segment will rise sharply, heating up the real estate market,” Hung said. “The housing needs of low-income people will be solved next years because there will be enough one million social condominiums by 2030 because the banking industry is also ready to devote preferential loan packages to support this scheme, and hold the increased momentum of the real estate market."
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