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Caution prevails in market amid rising selling pressure
The Vietnamese stock market experienced a volatile trading week marked by significant correction pressures, which pushed the VN-Index down to its lowest level of 2023.
An investor follows the stock market's movements. — Photo vietnamplus.vn
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Analysts suggest that caution is warranted at this time as the market enters a period with limited information flow following the release of Q3 earnings results.
By the end of last week’s final trading session, the VN-Index had dropped by 32.74 points, or 2.55 per cent, to close at 1,252.72 points, while the HNX-Index closed at 224.63 points, down 4.58 points or 2 per cent.
Liquidity on the Hồ Chí Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) slightly decreased compared to the previous week, with matched order volume down 3.01 per cent. Notably, foreign investment outflows continued, with net withdrawals totalling more than VNĐ1.046 trillion. Foreign investors heavily sold stocks like HPG, MSN, STB, and DGC, but there was net buying interest in VPB and MWG.
Head of Analysis at Saigon-Hanoi Securities (SHS), Phan Tấn Nhật, projected that the VN-Index would continue facing correction pressures, likely settling around the 1,245–1,255 range, a level that coincides with last year's lowest price point. Currently, the closest resistance level for the index is around 1,270 points. In the medium term, Nhật is optimistic that the VN-Index could go above the 1,250-point support level and reach 1,300 points—a significant resistance level that matches the early 2024 high and the peaks last seen between June and August 2022.
According to Nhật, for the index to break past the 1,300-point threshold, positive macroeconomic developments and exceptional corporate earnings growth are essential. Internationally, easing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and turmoil in the Middle East, would also be beneficial.
Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) analysts emphasised that the VN-Index closed the week with a sharp decline due to correction pressures and heightened volatility. The selling pressure and downward adjustment in blue-chip stocks were major obstacles, contributing to the market’s ongoing weakness. Technical indicators have reached low levels, but liquidity has remained stable, so the market outlook is not overly negative.
VCBS noted that although correction pressures are dominant, the declines have not been severe. With continued liquidity support, they expect the VN-Index to stabilise around the 1,250-point range. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio and focus on selective sectors such as real estate, telecommunications, and technology.
In the short term, experts recommend against buying aggressively at current levels. The consolidation phase may be prolonged as the market enters a period with fewer information catalysts following the Q3 earnings season and in the lead-up to the U.S. presidential election. The VN-Index’s fair value is seen within the 1,250–1,260 range, representing a market capitalisation of around US$290 billion.
Additionally, investors are encouraged to refrain from selling at this level and to focus on quality stocks, particularly leading stocks with solid fundamentals, after assessing Q3 earnings.
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