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Standard Chartered forecasts Q3 GDP to show ongoing recovery
Standard Chartered Bank forecasts Việt Nam’s Q3 GDP growth to pick up to 5.1 per cent year-on-year (from 4.1 per cent in the second quarter). A rebound is expected in the second half of the year, after early signs of recovery in the second quarter.
Customers shop at a supermarket in HCM City. Standard Chartered Bank forecasts inflation may rise again to 3.2 per cent year-on-year from 3.0 per cent year-on-year in August. — Photo baotintuc.vn
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The bank's 2023 GDP growth forecast remains at 5.4 per cent.
This information was released in its recent global research report titled “Việt Nam Macro: Q3 GDP to show ongoing recovery”.
According to the international bank, September data is likely to show a slight improvement over August, supported by retail sales. The bank expects September retail sales growth to stay robust at 8.2 per cent year-on-year, exports are predicted to fall 6.2 per cent year-on-year, imports to fall 7.0 per cent, and industrial production growth to pick up to 3.2 per cent. The trade surplus may narrow to US$1.3 billion.
Inflation may rise again to 3.2 per cent year-on-year from 3.0 per cent year-on-year in August. Education, housing, and food prices have driven inflation recently, while transport inflation has eased. Việt Nam received close to 7.8 million foreign visitors in the first 8 months of 2023, close to the full-year target of 8 million. However, the recovery remains tentative – trade is still contracting, manufacturing might remain lacklustre for some time, and FDI recovery prospects are unclear.
Tim Leelahaphan, Economist for Thailand and Việt Nam at Standard Chartered Bank, said: “While easing price pressures should allow policymakers to focus on growth, renewed concerns about an inflation rebound in the second half of the year could deter such a move. With the economic recovery starting to gain momentum, there should be less need for monetary policy support.”
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