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Brokerages forecast growth in several sectors in Q2
Investors should buy in stocks of businesses with strong resilience in the second half of this year, amid the context that the stock market is potentially entering a growth momentum.
A view of Thăng Long Boulevard in Hà Nội's Nam Từ Liêm District. Infrastructure investment stocks will benefit from the acceleration of the disbursement of public investment. — VNA/VNS Photo
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Enterprises with good fundamentals, digital transformation and green economic models will attract investors in the near future, said Lê Thành Nam, deputy general director of MB Securities Joint Stock Company (MBS).
MBS recommends a number of potential industries such as banking, securities, steel, retail, fisheries, textiles and sectors that benefit from public investment such as infrastructure construction and stone.
Although the stock market has increased more than 20 per cent since November 2022, the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of the VN-Index is still in the lowest price range in the past 10 years. If compared with regional markets, Vietnamese stocks are still about 10-15 per cent cheaper, said Đinh Đức Minh, Investment Director and Operator of VinaCapital VEOF fund and VincaCapital VIBF fund.
Regarding the market's growth momentum, Minh said that with deposit interest rates expected to continue to decrease, the market is forecast to recover in the second half of this year.
Deposit interest rates have decreased by an average of 1.5 percentage points compared to the beginning of this year, even some banks have decreased by 2-3 percentage points. Therefore, it is likely that a part of the bank deposit will be withdrawn and shifted to other investment channels with better returns, such as the stock market, said Minh.
Activities to accelerate the disbursement of public investment in the second half of 2023 will be the driving force behind the economic recovery and development plan in the period of 2023-25, according to BSC Securities.
More than VNĐ110.6 trillion (US$4.7 billion) of public investment was disbursed in the first four months of this year, equivalent to 14.6 per cent of the yearly target and lower than the 18.48 per cent in the same period last year, according to the Ministry of Finance.
BSC expects that directly affected industries such as infrastructure construction, and building materials, as well as indirectly affected groups including commercial real estate, industrial parks, and seaports, will benefit.
BSC also expects foreign investors to maintain their net buying position in the second half of 2023 when corporate profits will gradually improve compared to the first quarter and monetary and fiscal policies help the economy grow.
VinaCapital Securities Inc also recommends infrastructure investment stocks that will benefit from the acceleration of the disbursement of public investment, such as building materials, construction, and real estate.
The trend of shifting production from China will also be a growth engine for industries such as real estate, industrial zones, seaports, and logistics. The downtrend in interest rates will support business results of the banking, securities and real estate industries, Đinh Đức Minh from VinaCapital said.
"We also recommend export and consumption stocks because we expect US and EU customers to increase their orders in the near future. Therefore, the export outlook of Vietnamese businesses will recover by the end of this year. Workers will also have better incomes, thereby pushing up domestic consumption," Minh said.
Banking stocks saw good growth in June; in which joint-stock commercial banks were the leading group with an increase of 5.9 per cent. These are banks whose loan portfolios have benefited from lower interest rates and credit recovery from the real estate market.
Dragon Capital experts said that banking stocks will continue to lead in the second half of 2023 thanks to higher credit growth than in the first half of the year, and an improved net interest income (NIM) ratio.
Dragon Capital assesses the outlook for the banking industry, which currently accounts for the largest proportion of the VN-Index, remaining positive with a forecast EPS growth of about 10 per cent for 2023.
KB Securities Vietnam Joint Stock Company (KBSV) forecasts positive growth for the electricity, information technology, oil and gas, and retail sectors.
According to KBSV, the El Nino weather phenomenon will have a significant impact on some sectors.
KBSV said that there are three industry groups that are expected to benefit from the extreme weather phenomenon of El Nino. Specifically, the rice industry will benefit from the increased demand for rice in the first phase of El Nino; high sugar prices will be the growth momentum of domestic sugar producers; and coal and gas power groups will benefit from rising electricity prices.
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