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Day traders toy with trades
Vientiane: Trading is never easy - there are many tricks to the trade as they say One day doesn't make or break a market; usually it takes several days for an established trend.
Yesterday was far from stimulating and one that you write off.
Day traders could have read a lot into yesterday's low volumes when they toyed with trades.
But those that made lethargic mixed trades may have had underpinning ulterior motives in setting a leading direction for their stocks. However, the larger experienced investors didn't take the bait or follow the minuscule trail of just over US$1,000 of stocks traded in yesterday's sessions.
After a strong close Friday the LSX on Monday saw no matching trades occur in the first 3 sessions and none in the last. Both stocks were showing resistance when serious sellers shut the door on matching trades. Recapping BCEL closed Friday at a weak and meek 6,300 kip and EDL-Gen at a new secure 6 month high of 5,100 kip. Finally 1,000 BCEL shares managed to match and cross up 50 kip sparring for 6350 kip by the 10:30am close, but those small probing volumes pushing the index up 1 point were no indicator, they were just to test the water.
EDL-Gen foreign traders have been fairly consistent with a pattern of one day of trades followed by a sawtooth day of abstinence. Yesterday it looked very much like that trend would continue. By the 11am close only a lighthearted 377 shares matched but the index fallen 15.63 points, indicating EDL-Gen had lost 100 kip to fall to on frivolous trading to 5000 kip. Again, volumes were far from being an indicator for either stock but it drove the index down to 1017.55 points. That's where it disappointingly stayed on stagnated volumes right until the close. The next two weeks will be a short weeks for the stock exchange and finance institutions with the approaching Lao New Year holidays (April 13-16).
Optimism builds for an improved April.
Global Markets generally were flat to unimpressive over the past week, but in some quarters there has been a noticeable increase in traded share volumes. CNBC website reported China's PMI rose from 51 February to 53.1 in March - an 11 month high.
• Copper sees analyst hedging it can break Q1 prices in Q2. All focus rests with the resistance barrier at US$3.90/lb. Optimists predict April copper prices could now experience an upswing. Adding to some optimism for copper, China's PMI Index improved for a 4th straight month and helping markets the US consumer sentiment index rose in March.
• The US$ had small gains on most Asian currencies Friday and yesterday but not on the €uro or the Pound.
• Coffee prices last week rose 10 percent. Oil like Gold fell, but then both recovered yesterday.
In summary; according to the S&P500 technical charts expect a slightly improved week.
Wednesday morning could be the best indicator watch the DJIA for leads.
The Easter holidays may cause a slowdown as it will see a lot of western exchanges closed Friday and Monday. The first quarter has finished from a low base, markets according to experts are over extended, risks are currently contained and fair value exists for stocks.
• Euro zone PMI index is due out this week as too US payroll figures.
• South Korea's CPI gained 2.61 percent Q1.
Money is flowing out of bond markets into equities as indicated by negative yield curves. April has signs as being a better month than the previous 3 months. Australia's markets are trading as if RBA is expected to cut interest rates -¼ percent at 11:30am today.
Currencies: The dollar gained a little YTD but the Yen lost 1.17 percent last week.
• The AUD battled at US$1.0465; the NZ$ surprises up 5.99 percent YTD at US$0.8174.
• European currencies defy the woes of the EU zone, the €uro at US$1.3375 at new highs.
• The pound Friday stayed above US$1.59 and intraday yesterday went to a new YTD high of US$1.6034.
Metals: Gold YTD +4.19 percent at US$1662.4 intraday yesterday.
• Silver is up 12.29 percent YTD US$32.27.
• Copper NY at US$3.80 / lb is down -11.72 percent YTD.
• LME copper Friday was -7.10 percent YTD at US$8,381/ tn. Then intraday yesterday on China PMI results LME copper rose to US$8,445/ tn.
• Tin YTD lost US$2,950 or -15.28 percent (US$22,250/tn). Aluminium lost 8 percent US$2,175 YTS.
Tin and nickel both hit US$22,8000/tn intraday in a rare unique occurrence.
Oil Brent crude is big gainer YTD up +14.51 percent YTD US$125.13 but fell on the weekend. WTC crude was US$106 but falling. Early yesterday Nymex was up US$103.24 and Brent fell to US$122.88.
vientiane times
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