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Ministry develops accurate trade forecasts
A report forecasting imports and exports for this year recently issued by the Ministry of Industry and Trade was an important step in predicting annual import and export results, according to experts.
Le Xuan Ba, director of the Central Institute of Economic Management (CIEM), said the ministry wrote a careful and responsible report, ensuring that import and export predictions would follow market development more closely than in previous years.
In recent years, forecasts often differed significantly from reality. For instance, the ministry predicted exports to surge in 2009 but in fact, they plunged that year.
However, this year, the ministry included detailed forecasts, especially for key export markets.
Minister of Industry and Trade Vu Huy Hoang included specific proposals for exporters which were not included in previous reports. In the past, enterprises received proposals from economic experts but not from ministry officials.
For example, regarding the US market, Hoang said US market demand had declined but would not fall further indicating that exports to the US would increase modestly this year.
Domestic enterprises should take care of their US partners and maintain a good relationship with US associations in order to get support from the import market, Hoang said. They should keep an eye on technical barriers and legal procedures in the US market to be ready to deal with any potential lawsuits relating to exports there, he said.
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