|
The three economic scenarios for 2012
The National Finance Supervision Council has released the report on the economic prospect in 2012-2013, designing three economic scenarios for 2012. Of the three, the council leans towards the scenario with the GDP growth rate of 5.6-5.9 percent.
After considering the current conditions, the council believes that the 6 percent GDP growth rate proves to be an overly high goal, while lower targets would be safer, which allows the growth not to excess the possible output.
The report has pointed out that positive signs of the national economy would appear in the second half of the year thanks to the efficiency in macroeconomic stability improvement. However, businesses have been warned that they would still meet a lot of difficulties in the first months of 2012, and the real estate and stock markets would be gloomy in the first quarters.
Good scenario proves to be unfeasible
With the good conditions of the world’s economy, Vietnam’s export turnover is expected to increase by 12-13 percent, while the import turnover is forecast to increase by 13-14 percent. The ratio of trade deficit on export turnover may reach 11-12 percent in 2012, higher than 9.9 percent in 2011.
Once the global economy maintains its growth, the foreign direct investment in Vietnam is forecast to obtain the same level as 2011’s. FDI capital is expected to account for 23 percent of the total investment capital of the whole society, about 230 trillion dong.
With the assumptions, the total investment capital would be equal to 33.5 percent of GDP, while the GDP growth rate of Vietnam in 2012 may reach 6-6.3 percent, if Vietnam can improve the investment efficiency.
However, if there is no improvement in the technology renovation to increase the efficiency, it would be necessary to increase the proportion of private economic sector’s investment from 35.2 percent in 2011 to 43 percent in 2012, and reduce the investment of the state sector from 38.9 percent in 2011 to 34 percent in 2012.
With such a GDP growth rate, the inflation rate would be between 8 and 10 percent.
With the scenario, Vietnam’s public debt is expected to reach 58.2 percent of GDP
However, the council believes that changing the investment structure would be a big challenge. In order to increase the private sector’s investment from 35.2 percent to 43 percent, the credit growth rate needs to reach 25 percent.
Medium scenario: GDP growth rate would reach 5.6-5.9 percent
With the scenario, supposed that the productivity of the world’s economy decreases by one percent which would lead to the trade decrease of 3-4 percent in comparison with 2011. Meanwhile, the FDI capital to Vietnam would be a little lower than that mentioned in the good scenario, just accounting for 22-22.5 percent of the total society’s capital.
With the above factors, the GDP growth rate would be 5.6-5.9 percent, which the Finance Supervision Council believes the most feasible plan.
Bad scenario: GDP would growth by 5.2-5.5 percent’
In the best scenario, the world economy may fall into recession. If so, the economic growth rate would be less than 2.4 percent, while the trade would growth less by 3 percent in quantity, and the price may fall more sharply than the predicted 10 percent.
If this case, this would have big influences to Vietnam’s economy.
If so, the export turnover would increase only by 5-6 percent over 2011. It is very likely that the government would have to adjust the macroeconomic policies, increase investment in order to support businesses and prevent the economic downturn.
In this case, the policies would be loosened, which would pave the way for imports to increase by 5-6 percent, which would lead to the higher trade deficit of about 9-10 percent.
vietnamnet
|
