|
MOF optimistic about CPI, but risks latent in stormy season
The Price Control Agency under the Ministry of Finance (MOF) has released a report with optimistic predictions about the consumer price index (CPI) increase in August. Meanwhile, some analysts have warned that unpredictable things may occur in the coming stormy season.
MOF believes that the CPI in August would not increase as sharply as in July (1.17 percent – the highest increase so far, in comparison with the same periods of the last years).
According to the ministry, with the world’s supply on the rise, while the demand has not increased accordingly, the rice price would be stable or go down. The prices of popular foodstuff items tend to get stable, or just increase slightly, because the livestock epidemics have been controlled, while breeders now can earn big profits when the sale prices have increased and the animal feed price have been stabilized.
The meat price increases recently have prompted households to return to breeding, which gives another reason to believe that the supply shortage will not occur.
Even the sugar price is also believed to decrease in the time to come, though it always went up in Augusts due to the high demand in the mid-autumn festival season.
According to Nguyen Thi Thuy Nga, Deputy Director of the Price Control Agency, the sugar price performance may go contrary to the economic laws because of the overly high interest rates, which has forced enterprises to think carefully about how much sugar to store to make moon cakes.
She also said that no need to worry about the sugar price increases because of the profuse supply which includes the stocks of 293,000 tons, the quota imports of 154,550 tons, while sugar refineries would begin their production season in two months.
The important goods which serve as the input materials for production such as steel, cement, oil and gas, LPG or medicine, are believed to get stabilized or go down slightly in August. This would be one of the important reasons that help the CPI increase slows down in August.
Nevertheless, MOF has warned that high risks are latent in the stormy season. The unpredictable weather will have big impacts on the food and vegetable supply and demand in the storm stricken areas.
The long lasting pig blue-ear epidemics, the difficulties in accessing bank loans and the overly high interest rates all would be the reasons that push the prices up
In principle, August is the time for education goods to increase, because Vietnamese parents and students prepare for the new academic year. Meanwhile, the demands for some products will increase, including fertilizer for the summer-autumn crop.
The gloomy global economy and the serious public debt crisis in Europe are believed to change the prices of many kinds of goods in the world market, which will influence the domestic prices, because Vietnam needs to import materials for domestic production.
According to the Domestic Market Regulatory Taskforce, July 2011 witnessed the prices of many import items increasing, including cotton (0.4 percent), petroleum (4.4 percent), wheat (3 percent), clinker (10 percent) and paper (9.9 percent).
International analysts all say they cannot see any signs of possible oil price decreases, because information sources say the provisioning capacity of OPEC countries has been decreasing rapidly.
Kim Chi
vietnamnet
|
