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Lao economic growth remains best in Asean: ADB
Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecasted that the speed of Laos' economic growth will remain the highest among the Asean countries this year.
The bank unveiled its July edition of Asian Economic Monitor Update on Thursday, which projects that the Lao economy will experience a significant growth rate of 7.7 percent in 2011, allowing it to retain the top economic growth speed in the regional economic block of 500 million people.
The bank also forecasts that the economy will grow at 7.8 percent next year.
The main driving forces of Lao economic growth are still the mining sector, which has been bolstered by the increasing price of gold and copper, and hydropower.
The World Bank predicted that Lao economic growth will reach 8.6 percent this year and the government expects to achieve an 8.3 percent growth rate for the 2010/2011 fiscal year with all forecasters acknowledging that mining and hydropower will boost the rate.
According to ADB's projections, the Cambodian economy will grow at 6.5 percent this year and 6.8 percent next year, Indonesia is expected to reach 6.4 percent this year and 6.7 percent next year and Malaysia will achieve 5.3 percent growth but remain unchanged next year.
The Myanmar economy is estimated to increase at 5.5 percent this year and remain unchanged in 2012, the Philippines will see 5 percent growth this year and 5.3 percent next year and Thailand will experience 4.5 percent growth and 4.8 percent next year.
The Vietnam economy is expected to grow at 6.1 percent this year and 6.7 percent next year and Brunei will increase at 1.7 percent this year and 1.8 percent next year.
The average economic growth of Asean is projected to be 5.5 percent in 2011 and 5.7 percent in 2012.
The ADB also forecasts an aggregate GDP growth for emerging East Asia economies of 7.9 percent in 2011 and 7.7 percent in 2012. In 2010 aggregate growth reached 9.3 percent.
“Growth is easing in most emerging East Asia nations as authorities wind down fiscal stimulus measures and tighten monetary policies to counter rising inflation,” said Iwan Azis, Head of ADB's Office of Regional Economic Integration, which prepared the report.
“This is actually a good thing so that stronger economies like the People's Republic of China don't overheat.”
Growth in China moderated slightly to 9.5 percent in the second quarter of 2011 from 9.7 percent in the first quarter.
The highly trade-dependent, newly industrialised economies of Hong Kong, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Singapore and Taipei (China) should also see a return to more sustainable long-term levels of growth as a weakened external environment slows exports.
The ADB report also highlights risks to the region's financial outlook, including rising inflation leading to wage-price spirals that could derail growth, a more tepid than expected recovery in Japan and unresolved debt problems in the US and eurozone that could increase financial market volatility and destabilise capital flows.
vientiane times
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